周观点：猪企盈利分化，重视择优配置-20251107

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight," indicating that the growth level of the industry is expected to exceed that of the CSI 300 index in the next six months [68][69]. Core Insights - The report highlights the potential for long-term value in the pig farming sector, emphasizing the importance of selecting companies with cost management advantages. The cyclical nature of pig farming is expected to lead to a reasonable reduction in production capacity, which may positively influence pig prices and overall sector performance [7][8]. - The report suggests focusing on leading companies in the pig farming industry, such as Muyuan Foods and Wens Foodstuff Group, which are expected to benefit from optimized expansion and growth potential [11]. - The animal health sector is anticipated to recover alongside improvements in farming operations, with a focus on leading companies in vaccine development and innovative research [12]. Summary by Sections Livestock Industry - In September, the total sales of pigs from listed companies reached 12.977 million heads, a month-on-month decrease of 7.13%. The average selling price of pigs was 13.03 yuan/kg, down 6.02% month-on-month [8][9]. - The report indicates that the profit from self-breeding and purchased pig farming was -89.33 yuan/head and -179.72 yuan/head, respectively, as of October 31 [8]. Planting Industry - The USDA's report predicts an increase in global consumption of wheat by 5 million tons for the 2025/26 season, reaching 814.5 million tons, driven by higher feed and residual usage in several countries [13]. - The report also notes that global rice supply is expected to reach a record 800 million tons, with trade and consumption slightly increasing [14]. Pet Industry - The report forecasts a strong growth trajectory for domestic pet food companies, with expected compound annual growth rates of 17% for pet staple foods and 25% for pet snacks by 2026 [17]. - Leading domestic pet food companies such as Guibao Pet and Zhongchong Co. are recommended for investment [18]. Market Performance - The agricultural sector index increased by 1.99% during the period from October 25 to November 1, 2025, ranking 6th among 31 industry sectors [19][20]. - The report notes that the animal health, livestock, and planting sectors showed positive performance, while the fishery sector experienced a decline [19]. Company News - Muyuan Foods reported a net profit of 14.78 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, with a significant reduction in debt [26]. - Zhengbang Technology's revenue increased by 82.58% year-on-year, but net profit fell by 97.25% due to asset impairment [27]. - New Hope Liuhe issued a 500 million yuan bond for rural revitalization and technological innovation, reflecting strong market confidence [29].