尿素月报：供应压力持续，或低位震荡-20251107

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - In October 2025, the domestic urea market showed a "first decline then rise" trend, affected by weather, supply - demand, and policy. Currently, the urea price is relatively low, and with the expected stabilization of coal prices, the downside space is limited. However, the supply will remain at a high level year - on - year, the demand is in the off - season, and the "supply - strong, demand - weak" pattern persists. In the fourth quarter, the urea market will face continuous supply pressure, lack strong demand drivers, and is likely to fluctuate at a low level [2][26] Group 3: Summary by Directory Market行情回顾 - In mid - and early - October, after the National Day holiday, continuous rainfall delayed agricultural activities, weakening terminal purchasing willingness and increasing enterprise inventories. With the weakening of export support, prices declined. In mid - and late - October, prices reached a low of 1460 - 1470 yuan/ton, then demand increased, and positive policy signals boosted confidence, leading to price recovery. As of October 31, the Shandong Linyi market price was 1590 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton from the beginning of the month, and the urea 2601 contract closed at 1625 yuan/ton, with a monthly decline of 2.69% [6] Agricultural需求季节性推迟 - In October, agricultural urea demand was "delayed" due to continuous rainfall, which postponed corn harvest and wheat sowing, delaying fertilizer demand. Farmers adopted a "buy - as - you - use" strategy, increasing supply - demand imbalance. In the compound fertilizer sector, production and capacity utilization decreased in October, with a production of 362.87 million tons, a 22.16% month - on - month decline, and an average capacity utilization of 28.18%, down 8.02% month - on - month and 1.94% year - on - year. In September, urea exports were strong, with 137.12 million tons, but exports may decline in October [10][11][12] Supply高位运行 - In October, China's urea production was 588.19 million tons, an increase of 13.42 million tons from the previous month and a decrease of 0.71 million tons from the same period last year. There were new device overhauls and new capacity resumptions, with a slight reduction in overhaul losses, leading to production growth [17] Factory库存压力较大 - In October, domestic urea factory inventories first rose and then fell. In mid - and early - October, rainfall reduced demand and increased inventories. In mid - and late - October, inventories decreased slightly but remained high. At the end of October, factory inventories were 155.43 million tons, a 33.82% month - on - month and 30.30% year - on - year increase. Port inventories decreased significantly, ending at 21 million tons, a 57.69% month - on - month and 4.11% year - on - year decrease [19][20] 后市展望 - In terms of cost, coal prices are expected to stabilize, and cost support for urea prices may emerge. In terms of supply - demand, gas - based urea enterprises will enter the overhaul period in November, but coal - based production will remain high, and supply pressure persists. In November, agricultural demand enters the off - season, with demand mainly supported by reserves. Overall, the "supply - strong, demand - weak" pattern remains, and the market is likely to fluctuate at a low level in the fourth quarter [26]