宏观金融数据日报-20251107

Report Overview - Report Date: November 7, 2025 [3] - Author: Zheng Yuting from the Macro - Financial Research Center of Guomao Futures Research Institute [3] Market Interest Rates - DROO1 closed at 1.32 with a 0.15 bp increase; DR007 closed at 1.43 with a 1.24 bp decrease [4] - GC001 closed at 1.32 with an 11.00 bp decrease; GC007 closed at 1.47 with no change [4] - SHBOR 3M closed at 1.59 with a 0.15 bp decrease; LPR 5 - year remained at 3.50 [4] - 1 - year treasury bond yield was 1.40 with a 0.23 bp decrease; 5 - year treasury bond yield was 1.58 with a 0.52 bp increase [4] - 10 - year treasury bond yield was 1.81 with a 1.06 bp increase; 10 - year US treasury bond yield was 4.09 with a 2.33 bp decrease [4] Central Bank Operations - The central bank conducted 92.8 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations yesterday, with 342.6 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing, resulting in a net withdrawal of 249.8 billion yuan [4] - This week, 2.068 trillion yuan of reverse repurchases will mature in the central bank's open market, and 70 billion yuan of 91 - day repurchase - style reverse repurchases will mature on Friday [5] Stock Indexes and Futures Stock Indexes - CSI 300 rose 1.43% to 4693.4; SSE 50 rose 1.22% to 3044.7; CSI 500 rose 1.61% to 7345.7; CSI 1000 rose 1.17% to 7551.8 [6] - The trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 2.0552 trillion yuan, an increase of 182.9 billion yuan from the previous day [6] Stock Index Futures - IF当月 rose 1.6%; IH当月 rose 1.3%; IC当月 rose 1.9%; IM当月 rose 1.3% [6] - IF trading volume decreased 4.5%, and its position decreased 2.0%; IH trading volume decreased 3.1%, and its position decreased 0.8% [6] - IC trading volume decreased 9.3%, and its position decreased 2.7%; IM trading volume decreased 14.8%, and its position decreased 4.6% [6] Market Analysis and Strategy - Yesterday, the stock index continued to rebound, and the technology sector recovered. Rumors of support for domestic chips and a 50% price increase in HBM4 supply between SK Hynix and NVIDIA boosted relevant sectors [7] - In the short term, in November, the stock index enters a macro - relatively vacuum period. Liquidity factors may dominate market strength, and the stock index is expected to fluctuate strongly under the background of abundant macro - liquidity [7] - In the long - term, the stock index still has room to rise, but the upward pace will not be rapid. The strategy suggests seizing opportunities to go long and using the discount structure of stock index futures to enhance the advantage of long - term long strategies [7] Futures Contract Premium and Discount - IF升贴水: 4.98% (current month), 4.09% (next month), 3.22% (current quarter), 3.27% (next quarter) [8] - IH升贴水: 1.39% (current month), 0.93% (next month), 0.60% (current quarter), 0.64% (next quarter) [8] - IC升贴水: 13.62% (current month), 11.48% (next month), 9.93% (current quarter), 10.00% (next quarter) [8] - IM升贴水: 20.63% (current month), 16.50% (next month), 13.17% (current quarter), 12.40% (next quarter) [8]