Report Summary 1. Core Viewpoints - The easing of Sino-US trade policies has released positive signals, significantly alleviating the suppression of trans - oceanic cargo volume by trade frictions. Although the direct impact is concentrated on the US routes, it also drives the improvement of European route expectations [6]. - The US - China trade agreement announced this week is expected to prompt some US retailers to accelerate short - term import rhythms, but it is unlikely to lead to a significant adjustment of the supply - chain strategy [6]. - The EC market is in a downward trend, mainly because MSK's late - November quotes are significantly lower than those of other airlines [7]. - Key factors affecting the market include the fulfillment of peak - season demand, the persistence of airline strategies, and geopolitical and long - term agreement variables. In the short term, the market is likely to maintain a relatively strong oscillation, and it is recommended to try to go long on the main contract at low prices [8]. 2. Data Summary Shipping Freight Index | Index | Present Value | Previous Value | Increase/Decrease Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SCFI | 1551 | 1403 | 10.49% | | CCFI | 1021 | 993 | 2.89% | | SCFI - US West | 2647 | 2153 | 22.94% | | SCFIS - US West | 1208 | 1107 | 9.12% | | SCFI - US East | 3438 | 3032 | 13.39% | | SCFI - Northwest Europe | 1344 | 1246 | 7.87% | | SCFIS - Northwest Europe | 1208 | 1312 | - 7.93% | | SCFI - Mediterranean | 1983 | 1746 | 13.57% | [5] Shipping Derivative Contracts | Contract | Present Value | Previous Value | Increase/Decrease Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | EC2506 | 1414.2 | 1426.1 | - 0.83% | | EC2608 | 1484.0 | 1497.1 | - 0.88% | | EC2610 | 1140.0 | 1142.8 | - 0.25% | | EC2512 | 1848.2 | 1946.0 | - 5.03% | | EC5602 | 1601.0 | 1652.0 | - 3.09% | | EC2604 | 1178.0 | 1199.6 | - 1.80% | [5] Contract Positions | Position | Present Value | Previous Value | Increase/Decrease Value | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | EC2606 Position | 1455 | 1464 | - 9 | | EC2608 Position | 1306 | 1337 | - 31 | | EC2610 Position | 1432 | 1276 | 156 | | EC2512 Position | 28412 | 34072 | - 5660 | | EC2602 Position | 22625 | 22352 | 273 | | EC2604 Position | 14208 | 14537 | - 329 | [5] Monthly Spread | Spread | Present Value | Previous Value | Increase/Decrease Value | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 12 - 02 | 247.2 | 294.0 | - 46.8 | | 12 - 04 | 670.2 | 746.4 | - 76.2 | | 02 - 04 | 423.0 | 452.4 | - 29.4 | [5] 3. Market Strategy - The long positions in the December contract can be closed to take profits [9].
航运衍生品数据日报-20251107
Guo Mao Qi Huo·2025-11-07 07:18