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沙特基础工业公司：略有偏差，但成本管理稳健，项目进展良好
Haitong Securities International·2025-11-07 07:21

Investment Rating - The report maintains a neutral investment rating for Saudi Basic Industries Corporation (SABIC) [1][2]. Core Insights - The market is expected to have a neutral reaction to SABIC's Q3 2025 performance, with adjusted net income slightly below consensus expectations, offset by strong performance in the agricultural nutrients segment [1][2]. - SABIC reiterated its capital expenditure guidance for FY 2025 in the range of $3-3.5 billion and highlighted the expected production start of its integrated complex in China next year [1][2]. - The petrochemical segment is facing capacity oversupply issues, which the company has reaffirmed [1]. Summary by Sections Latest Developments - SABIC's revenue for Q3 2025 was 34.33 billion SAR, below consensus expectations, primarily due to weak performance in the petrochemical business and a decline in licensing revenue, partially offset by strong agricultural nutrients performance [2]. - The adjusted EBITDA was 5.561 billion SAR, also below market expectations, reflecting weak petrochemical product prices, although mitigated by cost control measures [2]. - The company reported a significant impact from cost and value creation initiatives, estimating a $300 million effect on EBITDA for FY 2025, with a Q3 impact of $119 million [2]. Project Progress - SABIC reported that its growth projects are progressing well, including the early production of the Petrokemya MTBE plant and the completion of 87% of the integrated complex in China, expected to start production in H2 2026 [2]. - The Ibn Zahr LTRS-1 project has also been launched, aimed at improving feedstock utilization and reducing the carbon footprint [2]. Segment Performance - The petrochemical segment's adjusted EBITDA was slightly below expectations due to weak methanol and polyethylene prices, as well as ongoing oversupply of ethylene glycol [2]. - Conversely, the agricultural nutrients segment outperformed expectations, driven by rising urea prices, contributing positively to overall revenue [2].