Report Information - Report Title: "Zhengzhou Cotton: Bullish Factors Exhausted, Continued Rise Losing Momentum" [1][6][21] - Research Team: Hongye Futures Agricultural Products Research Team [3] - Date: November 7, 2025 [3] - Analyst: Wang Xiaobei [3] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The impact of Xinjiang seed - cotton procurement on Zhengzhou cotton prices is gradually weakening as the procurement nears completion. The positive news from Sino - US trade has been priced in, and downstream demand is weakening marginally, with mainly rigid - demand restocking. In the short term, Zhengzhou cotton lacks the impetus for a continued rise. With the large - scale listing of new cotton, there may be hedging pressure to some extent. Key factors to monitor are the macro - environment, demand, and policies [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Cotton Production and Price - As of October 30, the national new cotton picking progress was 87.1%, 1.9 percentage points higher than the same period last year; the national delivery rate was 90.4%, 3.5 percentage points higher; the national new cotton processing rate was 39.9%, 0.5 percentage points higher; and the national new cotton sales rate was 14.2%, 9.3 percentage points higher [4]. - As of November 4, 2025, the national new cotton inspection volume was 2.0819 million tons, still up 34.24% year - on - year, although the year - on - year growth rate had declined significantly compared to the previous period [4]. - Recently, the seed - cotton purchase price has generally remained stable, with some regional differences. In northern Xinjiang, the mainstream purchase price is stable at 6.2 - 6.3 yuan per kilogram due to reduced resources; in southern Xinjiang, the mainstream price of high - lint, low - moisture and impurity seed cotton is maintained at 6.40 - 6.50 yuan per kilogram [4]. 2. Sino - US Trade Policy Impact - In late October and early November, the US and China adjusted tariffs. The US cancelled the 10% "fentanyl" tariff on Chinese goods and suspended the so - called 24% reciprocal tariff on Chinese goods for one year. China continued to suspend the implementation of the 24% additional tariff on US goods for one year, retained the 10% additional tariff, and stopped implementing the relevant tariff announcement on imported US cotton (15%). The most direct impact of the mutual tariff reduction may be reflected in exports, stabilizing market expectations, and enhancing business confidence, but it is difficult to see a significant increase in export orders in the short term [5]. 3. Cotton Price Index and Market Price Movements - From October 30 to November 6, the price of the active contract of Zhengzhou cotton rose from 13,600 yuan/ton to 13,605 yuan/ton, an increase of 5 yuan/ton; the price of the active contract of ICE cotton fell from 65.09 cents/pound to 64.48 cents/pound, a decrease of 0.61 cents/pound [7]. - The Cotlook A price index decreased from 77.4 cents/pound on October 30 to 0 (a decrease of 77.40 cents/pound) on November 6; the price of Indian S - 6 remained unchanged at 53,000 rupees/candy from October 30 to November 6 [9]. - The port pick - up prices of imported cotton yarn from India, Vietnam, and Indonesia all increased slightly from October 30 to November 6. For example, the price of Indian C32S increased by 20 yuan/ton, Vietnam C32S by 30 yuan/ton, and Indonesia C32S by 30 yuan/ton [10]. - The arrival prices of imported cotton from the US and Brazil decreased from October 30 to November 6. For example, the 1% tariff price of US EMOT M decreased by 141 yuan/ton, and the 1% tariff price of Brazilian cotton decreased by 192 yuan/ton [11]. 4. US Cotton Situation - As of the week ending September 18, the weekly signing volume of 2025/26 US upland cotton was 19,500 tons, a 54% decrease from the previous week, a 53% decrease from the four - week average, and a 19% decrease from the same period last year. The US government shutdown led to the suspension of new data release by the USDA [20]. 5. Domestic Cotton Inventory and Sales - As of November 5, 2024, the cotton inspection volume in the 2025/26 season was about 2.1578 million tons, a year - on - year increase of about 31.82% [36]. - As of this Thursday, the total of Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts and valid forecasts was 4,281 sheets; the total of Zhengzhou yarn warehouse receipts and valid forecasts was 18 sheets [59]. 6. Downstream Market Conditions - The downstream raw material inventory of yarn mills (cotton) and fabric mills (cotton yarn) is presented in relevant charts, but specific data is not explicitly described in the text [40]. - The downstream start - up load and finished - product inventory situation is presented in relevant charts, but specific data is not explicitly described in the text [43]. 7. Price Difference and Profit Situation - As of this Thursday, the 328 cotton spot price index was 20,520 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 45 yuan/ton; the closing price of the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton was 19,870 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 25 yuan/ton; the basis between them was 650 yuan/ton, a week - on - week expansion of 70 yuan/ton. The C32S yarn price index was 14,820 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 40 yuan/ton; the closing price of the main contract of Zhengzhou yarn was 13,605 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 10 yuan/ton; the basis between them was 1,215 yuan/ton, a week - on - week expansion of 50 yuan/ton [48]. - As of this Thursday, the price difference between the domestic 328 cotton price index and the imported cotton port pick - up price index under the sliding - scale tariff was - 616 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 26 yuan/ton; the price difference with the 1% tariff was 724 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 83 yuan/ton. The price difference between the C32S cotton yarn price index and the port pick - up price was 1,624 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 149 yuan/ton [50]. - As of this Thursday, on the futures market, the price difference between the main contract of Zhengzhou yarn and the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton was 6,265 yuan/ton, a week - on - week expansion of - 1,486 yuan/ton; the immediate theoretical processing profit of 32 - count pure - cotton yarn was - 30 yuan/ton, and the loss margin expanded by 70 yuan/ton week - on - week [52].
郑棉：利多暂出尽，续涨显乏力
Hong Ye Qi Huo·2025-11-07 07:23