国信期货油脂油料周报：粕强油弱凸显，马棕油等待报告指引-20251107

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the CBOT soybean market fluctuated with news of China's soybean purchases from the US, and the domestic soybean meal market followed suit. The soybean oil market was weak, and the palm oil market awaited the MPOB report. The domestic vegetable oil market showed a differentiated trend [6][60]. - Next week, the protein - meal market will focus on the USDA report, with expectations of a significant reduction in US soybean inventory. The domestic soybean meal market has high inventory pressure and is driven by cost. The oil market will pay attention to the MPOB report and 11 - day export data in November. The overall oil market is weakly operating, awaiting the guidance of the two reports [125][126]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Protein Meal Market Analysis 3.1.1 Weekly Market Review - The CBOT soybean price first rose and then fell this week. The domestic soybean meal market followed the trend of US soybeans, with the futures price rising first and then falling. Although the domestic soybean meal inventory reached a new high, the oil mills' willingness to support the price of soybean meal increased due to losses [6]. 3.1.2 US Market - US Soybean Export Situation - As of the week ending October 30, 2025, the US soybean export inspection volume was 965,063 tons, a decrease from the previous week and the same period last year. The cumulative export inspection volume in the 2025/26 season decreased by 40.0% year - on - year, and the export reached 17.0% of the annual target [13]. 3.1.3 North American Market - South American Weather - As of October 30, 2025, the sowing progress of Brazilian soybeans in the 2025/26 season was 47%, higher than that of the previous week but lower than the same period last year. Some regions had problems such as excessive rainfall or insufficient rainfall [24]. 3.1.4 Domestic and Foreign Oilseed Markets - Chinese importers increased their purchases of Brazilian soybeans due to price advantages. The US Department of Agriculture will release a production report and a supply - demand report on November 14, which will adjust the production expectations of major crops [24][31]. 3.1.5 Soybean - Port Inventory and Pressing Profit - As of the end of the 44th week, the domestic port's imported soybean inventory was about 8.4022 million tons, and the theoretical inventory at the end of next week is expected to be 5.04 million tons. The domestic soybean pressing is still in a loss situation, but the loss has narrowed [37]. 3.1.6 Soybean - Import Cost and Domestic - Foreign Price Difference - The cost of US Gulf soybeans arriving at the port in December (with additional tariffs) is 4,891 yuan/ton, and that of Brazilian soybeans arriving in November is 3,949 yuan/ton. The Brazilian premium dropped significantly this week [41]. 3.1.7 Soybean Meal - Soybean Starting Rate and Soybean Meal Inventory - As of the end of the 44th week, the average starting rate of domestic soybean oil mills was 61.59%, a decrease of 4.83% from the previous week. The domestic soybean meal inventory was 1.208 million tons, an increase of 156,000 tons from the previous week [45]. 3.1.8 Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal - Weekly Apparent Consumption - The estimated apparent consumption of soybean meal in the 44th week was 1.6624 million tons, a decrease from the previous week [47]. 3.1.9 Rapeseed Meal - Rapeseed Starting Rate and Pressing Volume - As of the end of the 44th week, the starting rate of domestic imported rapeseed processing enterprises was 1.47%, an increase of 0.49% from the previous week. The pressing volume of imported rapeseed was 0.6 million tons, an increase of 0.2 million tons from the previous week [53]. 3.2 Grease Market Analysis 3.2.1 Weekly Market Review - This week, the US soybean oil was in a low - level shock, and the Malaysian palm oil oscillated downward. The domestic vegetable oil market showed a differentiated trend. The soybean oil rose slightly, the palm oil was weak, and the rapeseed oil rebounded slightly [60]. 3.2.2 International Grease Information - The MPOB will release monthly supply - demand data on November 10. It is estimated that the Malaysian palm oil inventory in October will reach 2.44 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.4%. Indian edible oil imports in October are estimated to have dropped to a five - month low [64][65]. 3.2.3 Three Major Vegetable Oil Futures and Spot Price Trends - The futures and spot prices of the three major vegetable oils showed different trends, with the overall performance of rapeseed oil > soybean oil > palm oil this week, and the soybean - palm oil price difference continued to rise [98]. 3.2.4 Domestic Grease Inventory - As of the end of the 44th week, the total inventory of the three major domestic edible oils was 2.5728 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 58,200 tons. Among them, the soybean oil inventory was 1.4618 million tons, the palm oil inventory was 0.5383 million tons, and the rapeseed oil inventory was 0.5728 million tons [81]. 3.2.5 Grease Basis Analysis - The basis of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil showed different trends, with the basis of each variety fluctuating [89][92][95]. 3.2.6 Grease and Oilseed Variety Arbitrage Relationship - This week, the oil - meal ratio of soybeans and rapeseed decreased, and the price difference between the main contracts of soybean meal and rapeseed meal narrowed [103]. 3.2.7 Protein Meal Inter - Monthly Spread Arbitrage Relationship - This week, the 1 - 5 spread of soybean meal continued to rise [108]. 3.2.8 Grease Inter - Monthly Spread Arbitrage Relationship - This week, the 1 - 5 spread of soybean oil rebounded slightly, the 1 - 5 spread of palm oil fluctuated narrowly, and the 1 - 5 spread of rapeseed oil also fluctuated narrowly [111]. 3.3 Market Outlook 3.3.1 Seasonal Analysis - The seasonal analysis of the US soybean, soybean meal, domestic soybean meal, and other markets shows their historical price trends in different months [115][116][118]. 3.3.2 Next - Week Market Outlook - Technical Level: The short - term and medium - term indicators of soybean meal and rapeseed meal are bullish, and the long - term indicators are entangled. The short - term, medium - term, and long - term indicators of soybean oil and rapeseed oil are entangled. The short - term and medium - term indicators of palm oil are bearish, and the long - term indicators are entangled [124]. - Fundamentals: The protein - meal market focuses on the USDA report, with expectations of a significant reduction in US soybean inventory. The domestic soybean meal market has high inventory pressure and is driven by cost. The oil market pays attention to the MPOB report and 11 - day export data in November. The overall oil market is weakly operating, awaiting the guidance of the two reports [125][126].