欧盟碳市场行情简报（2025年第193期）-20251107

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2) Core Viewpoints of the Report - Investment fund long positions are continuously increasing, but the climate target has significantly softened, leading to a high - level decline of EUA [1] - The trading strategy is to short at high prices with a light position [1] 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Market Conditions - Primary Market: The auction price is not available, and the bid - cover ratio is also not available [1] - Secondary Market: The EUA futures settlement price is 81.49 euros/ton, a decrease of 1.00%, and the trading volume is 26,700 lots, a decrease of 0.80 [1] Strategy - Adopt the strategy of shorting at high prices with a light position [1] Core Logic - Positive Factors: The latest CoT report shows that last week, the net long positions of investment funds increased to 2.636 million tons; the liquefied natural gas tanker freight rate has soared significantly due to the approaching winter in the Northern Hemisphere, tight ship supply, and logistics delays [1] - Negative Factors: The EU Council has determined the medium - term climate target to reduce net greenhouse gas emissions by 90% compared to the 1990 level by 2040 (including 5% high - quality international carbon credits) and proposed to postpone the launch of EU ETS2 [1][2] Risk - The EU economy may experience a recession; the EU may increase auctions to raise funds; the emission cap may be weakened [2]