光大期货能化商品日报-20251107

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. For each specific energy and chemical product, the ratings are as follows: - Crude oil: Volatile [1] - Fuel oil: Volatile [1] - Asphalt: Volatile [3] - Polyester: Volatile [4] - Rubber: Volatile [6] - Methanol: Volatile [6] - Polyolefin: Volatile [8] - Polyvinyl chloride: Volatile and weakening [8] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Crude oil: On Thursday, oil prices fluctuated and declined. Due to increased refinery production, Russia's oil exports from its western ports in November are expected to slightly decrease but remain close to recent historical highs. The official selling price premiums of some Saudi crude oil grades have been adjusted. Currently, oil prices lack a clear driving force and will continue to fluctuate [1]. - Fuel oil: The main contracts of fuel oil showed mixed trends. The overall supply of fuel oil in Singapore in November is expected to remain sufficient. The market structures of low - sulfur and high - sulfur fuel oils may continue to reverse, and the LU - FU spread still has some room to rebound [1][3]. - Asphalt: The main asphalt contract declined. The northern market demand is shrinking due to temperature, while the southern market has some project rush - work demands but may first consume low - priced social inventory resources. The supply pressure in November has eased, and the price is expected to fluctuate narrowly [3]. - Polyester: Affected by market news, PX&TA futures prices rebounded significantly, and the processing margin on the disk narrowed. The downstream polyester maintains a high operating rate, and further attention should be paid to the increase in maintenance due to low processing fees. Ethylene glycol has high production, low inventory, and a large number of upcoming production capacities, with limited downstream demand growth and a strong expectation of inventory accumulation [4]. - Rubber: The prices of rubber main contracts rose. Due to increased rainfall in the producing areas, raw material prices are unstable. The demand for all - steel tires is better than that of semi - steel tires, and rubber prices will fluctuate [6]. - Methanol: Due to the shutdown of major methanol plants in Inner Mongolia and the news of gas restrictions on Iranian plants, the market expects a decrease in subsequent supply, leading to a rebound in methanol prices. However, MTO profit has started to weaken, and traditional downstream support is relatively limited, so methanol prices will tend to fluctuate widely at the bottom [6]. - Polyolefin: Polyolefin is gradually moving towards a situation of strong supply and weak demand, with high pressure on inventory transfer to downstream. The weak performance of short - term crude oil prices weakens the cost support for polyolefin, but the current spread is at a low level in the past five years, so polyolefin prices are expected to fluctuate at the bottom [8]. - Polyvinyl chloride: The PVC market price has been adjusted downward. Supply remains high, and demand will decline as real - estate construction slows down. The supply - demand pressure is high, and the price is expected to show a weakening and fluctuating trend [8]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Perspectives - Crude oil: WTI December contract closed down $0.17 to $59.43 per barrel, a decline of 0.29%; Brent January contract closed down $0.14 to $63.38 per barrel, a decline of 0.22%; SC2512 closed at 454.4 yuan/barrel, down 6.1 yuan/barrel, a decline of 1.32%. Russia's November western port oil exports are expected to be about 2.3 million barrels per day, slightly lower than October's 2.4 million barrels per day. Some Saudi crude oil grade premiums have been reduced by $0.3 per barrel [1]. - Fuel oil: The main contract FU2601 of fuel oil on the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose 0.04% to 2,728 yuan/ton; the main contract LU2601 of low - sulfur fuel oil fell 0.24% to 3,269 yuan/ton. As of the week of November 5, Singapore's on - land fuel oil inventory decreased by 299,000 barrels (1.21%) week - on - week, while Fujairah's fuel oil inventory increased by 2.166 million barrels (33.35%) week - on - week [1][3]. - Asphalt: The main asphalt contract BU2601 fell 2.05% to 3,109 yuan/ton. This week, the shipment volume of 54 domestic asphalt manufacturers increased by 2.9% week - on - week, and the capacity utilization rate of 69 modified asphalt enterprises decreased by 4.7% compared with before the holiday and 2.5% year - on - year [3]. - Polyester: TA601 closed at 4,688 yuan/ton, up 1.91%; EG2601 closed at 3,924 yuan/ton, up 0.26%. As of November 6, the overall ethylene glycol operating load in mainland China was 72.44% (down 3.76% from the previous period), and the PTA load was adjusted to 76.4%. The domestic polyester load was around 91.5% [4]. - Rubber: The main contract RU2601 of Shanghai rubber rose 195 yuan/ton to 15,045 yuan/ton, and the main contract NR rose 195 yuan/ton to 12,130 yuan/ton. The weekly operating load of domestic semi - steel tires was 74.45%, down 0.24 percentage points from last week and 4.37 percentage points from the same period last year; the operating load of all - steel tires in Shandong was 65.54%, up 0.21 percentage points from last week and 5.35 percentage points from the same period last year [6]. - Methanol: The spot price in Jiangsu was 2,095 yuan/ton. Due to plant failures and gas restrictions, the market expects a decrease in supply, but MTO profit has weakened, and traditional downstream support is limited [6]. - Polyolefin: The mainstream price of East China拉丝 was 6,400 - 6,600 yuan/ton. The profit margins of various production methods of polyolefin were negative. The prices of PE films decreased compared with last week [8]. - Polyvinyl chloride: The prices in East, North, and South China PVC markets were adjusted downward. Supply remains high, and demand will decline as real - estate construction slows down [8] 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring The report provides the basis price data for multiple energy and chemical products on November 6 and 5, including spot prices, futures prices, basis, basis rates, and the position of the latest basis rate in historical data [10]. 3.3 Market News - Russia's November oil exports from western ports are expected to slightly decrease due to increased refinery production but remain close to historical highs [14]. - ConocoPhillips raised its full - year production forecast after reporting higher - than - expected third - quarter earnings. The third - quarter production reached 2.4 million barrels of oil equivalent per day, an increase of 48,200 barrels of oil equivalent per day year - on - year. The company expects fourth - quarter production to be between 2.3 million and 2.34 million barrels of oil equivalent per day and raised its 2025 production forecast to 2.375 million barrels of oil equivalent per day, while lowering its 2025 operating cost forecast from $10.9 billion to $10.6 billion [14]. 3.4 Chart Analysis - 4.1 Main Contract Prices: The report presents the closing price charts of main contracts for multiple energy and chemical products from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, LPG, PTA, ethylene glycol, short - fiber, LLDPE, polypropylene, PVC, methanol, styrene, 20 - grade rubber, rubber, synthetic rubber, European line container shipping, and para - xylene [16][17][18][22][24][26][29][30][32]. - 4.2 Main Contract Basis: It shows the basis charts of main contracts for multiple products, such as crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, ethylene glycol, PP, LLDPE, natural rubber, 20 - grade rubber, para - xylene, synthetic rubber, and bottle chips [33][38][39][42][43][44]. - 4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads: The report provides the spread charts of different contracts for multiple products, including fuel oil, asphalt, European line container shipping index, PTA, ethylene glycol, PP, LLDPE, and natural rubber [48][50][53][56][59][61]. - 4.4 Inter - product Spreads: It includes the spread and ratio charts between different products, such as crude oil internal and external markets, crude oil B - W spread, fuel oil high - low sulfur spread, fuel oil/asphalt ratio, BU/SC ratio, ethylene glycol - PTA spread, PP - LLDPE spread, and natural rubber - 20 - grade rubber spread [64][67][69][75]. - 4.5 Production Profits: The report shows the production profit charts of LLDPE and PP [72].