Report Investment Rating - The investment rating for the fruit industry is "Oscillating Weakly" [3][5][6][7][36] Core View - For apples, the new - season late Fuji ground trading is gradually ending, with trading concentrated in Shandong and Shanxi. The warehousing work is in the later stage. The sales area has a weak trading atmosphere, with fewer arrivals and pressure on the demand side, so the price is expected to be under pressure. For dates, in the Xinjiang main - producing areas, the acquisition in some areas is over, and the picking progress in others is 3 - 40%. Affected by the double - decline of the futures and spot prices, the purchasing enthusiasm of merchants has weakened. With new fruits on the market and consumption falling short of expectations, the price is under pressure [9][39] Summary by Directory Apple 1. Weekly View - The new - season late Fuji ground trading is winding up, concentrated in Shandong and Shanxi. Warehousing is in the later stage. In Shandong's Qixia and Zhaoyuan, not all apples have been picked, with many merchants and striped apples on the market. Fruit farmers mostly sell at the market price. In terms of warehousing progress, Gansu has basically completed, Shaanxi is near the end, and in Shandong's Qixia, farmers' apples are still being warehoused in large quantities. The sales area has a weak trading atmosphere, fewer arrivals, and pressure on the demand side, so the price is expected to be under pressure [9] 2. Market Review - This week, the apple main contract oscillated and pulled back. The apple basis was - 102 yuan, an increase of 268 compared to last week [13] 3. Apple Wholesale Market Price Trend - As of October 31, 2025, the wholesale price of all - variety apples was 9.46 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.06 yuan/kg from last week; the wholesale price of Fuji apples was 9.15 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.11 yuan/kg from last week. Recently, the spot price of Fuji apples has been oscillating downward [16] 4. Apple Main - producing Areas Situation - In Shandong, the price of 85 first - and second - grade slice - red apples is 4 - 4.5 yuan/jin, 80 first - and second - grade is 3.5 - 4.0 yuan/jin, 80 first - and second - grade half is 3.3 - 3.5 yuan/jin, and the general goods are 2.0 - 3.0 yuan/jin, priced according to quality. In Shaanxi, in Luochuan, the price of more than 70 semi - commercial apples is around 3.7 - 4.2 yuan/jin, and more than 70 general goods are 3.3 - 3.6 yuan/jin. In Baishui, more than 70 general goods start at 2.8 - 3.3 yuan/jin, and more than 70 semi - commercial is around 3.5 yuan/jin. Labor costs are high during the peak labor - using period [19] 5. Cold Storage Situation Analysis - As of November 5, 2025, the apple cold - storage inventory in the national main - producing areas was 6.9842 million tons, 1.1502 million tons lower than the same period last year (8.1344 million tons on November 6, 2024), a decrease of 14.14%. Since warehousing in some main - producing areas is still ongoing, this inventory only reflects the current national warehousing progress, not the final peak [21] 6. Sales Area Market Summary - In the South China market, the number of early - morning arrivals at the Guangdong Chalong market decreased significantly compared to last week, with an average of about 24 arrivals per day. The mainstream price of Shandong 80 late Fuji in baskets is 3.8 - 4 yuan/jin, and in boxes is 4.5 - 5.5 yuan/jin. The price of Luochuan late Fuji in baskets starting from 70 is 4.0 - 5.5 yuan/jin, and Jingning late Fuji in boxes starting from 70 is 5.8 - 7.5 yuan/jin. Currently, the prices of the goods vary, the purchasing enthusiasm of second - and third - level wholesalers is average, the overall sales of new - season late Fuji are slow, and there is pressure on daily digestion, with some backlog in the transit warehouse [24] 7. Apple Storage Profit Analysis - In the 2025 - 2026 production season, during the acquisition stage, the profit statistics for 80 first - and second - grade apple storage merchants in Qixia have been suspended [28] 8. Substitute Price Analysis - As of the 45th week of 2025, the average wholesale price of six kinds of fruits monitored by the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs was 7.10 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.03 yuan/kg compared to the 44th week. Most of the six kinds of fruits rose this week. The average wholesale prices of pineapples, Fuji apples, Kyoho grapes, Ya pears, and watermelons increased by 0.12 yuan/kg, 0.01 yuan/kg, 0.08 yuan/kg, 0.08 yuan/kg respectively compared to the 44th week; the average wholesale price of bananas decreased by 0.14 yuan/kg compared to the 44th week [31] Date 1. Weekly View - In the Xinjiang main - producing areas, the acquisition in Hotan and Qiemo is over, and the picking progress in Ruoqiang, Alar, and Aksu is 3 - 40%. The price of general goods in Aksu, Alar, and Kashgar is 6.00 - 7.80 yuan/kg, slightly lower than last week. Affected by the double - decline of the futures and spot prices, the purchasing enthusiasm of merchants in Xinjiang has weakened. In the Hebei sales area, the price has been slightly adjusted down. This week, the average price of super - grade dates in Hebei is 10.32 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.23 yuan/kg from last week; the average price of first - grade dates is 9.31 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.28 yuan/kg from last week. With new fruits on the market and consumption falling short of expectations, the price is under pressure [39] 2. Market Review - The purchasing enthusiasm of merchants in Xinjiang is low, mostly waiting for the concentrated picking. The sellers' price - holding sentiment has loosened, and the price has slightly decreased. In the main - producing area of Aksu, the mainstream price of general goods is 6.00 - 7.00 yuan/kg, in Alar it is 6.30 - 7.50 yuan/kg, in Kashgar it is 6.90 - 7.50 yuan/kg, in Ruoqiang it is 8.50 - 10.00 yuan/kg, in Hotan it is 8.00 - 8.50 yuan/kg, and in Qiemo it is 7.50 - 8.50 yuan/kg. The acquisition in Hotan and Qiemo is basically over. The raw material acquisition in the producing area is priced according to quality, adhering to the principle of high - quality and high - price. The picking progress in the producing area is about 30% [42] 3. Spot Price Trend - In Hebei's Cui'erzhuang, the price range for super - grade dates is 11.50 - 12.50 yuan/kg, for super - grade new dates is 11.50 yuan/kg, for first - grade is 8.80 - 9.30 yuan/kg, for first - grade new dates is 10.20 - 10.60 yuan/kg, for second - grade is 7.60 - 8.20 yuan/kg, and for third - grade is 6.30 - 6.80 yuan/kg. In the Henan market, the spot price of dates has been adjusted down by 0.20 yuan/kg this week. In the Guangdong Ruyifang market, the average daily arrival of goods is 4 trucks, an increase of 1 truck from last week. The market supply is sufficient, the price has been slightly adjusted down by 0.20 - 0.30 yuan/kg, the purchasing enthusiasm of merchants is average, and the market acceptance of new dates with higher prices is low [47] 4. Inventory Data - According to the research data of Mysteel Agricultural Products, the physical inventory of 36 sample points this week is 9541 tons, an increase of 193 tons from last week, a month - on - month increase of 2.06% and a year - on - year increase of 131.35%. The inventory of sample points has increased. With the continuous decline of the futures price, the spot - futures companies have increased their point - price shipments. Merchants are more active in purchasing old dates with high cost - performance, and their enthusiasm for purchasing new - season raw materials in the producing area has weakened. The producing area has entered the concentrated picking stage. Attention should be paid to the changes in the purchasing enthusiasm and purchasing structure of buyers. The supply of goods in the sales area has increased, and downstream customers mostly wait and purchase as needed [49] 5. Sales Area Market Profit Analysis - The average acquisition price of grey dates in the Xinjiang main - producing area is 5.33 yuan/kg (2024 production season). The 2025 new season has not seen concentrated picking yet. The price of first - grade finished dates in the Hebei sales area is 8.80 - 9.30 yuan/kg. The freight from Aksu to Cangzhou is 680 - 700 yuan/ton, and the gross profit is equivalent to 1.97 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.35 yuan/kg from last week [52]
长江期货鲜果周报：震荡偏弱-20251107
Chang Jiang Qi Huo·2025-11-07 08:27