光大期货金融期货日报-20251107

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The A-share market showed a pattern of rising and oscillating, with cyclical sectors such as non-ferrous metals, electronics, and communications leading the gains. The Sino-US summit is conducive to the improvement of China's demand and the valuation of A-share technology stocks. The Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China boosted market confidence, and the structured market is expected to continue, but be cautious about chasing high prices. The focus of the market may return to fundamentals, and the performance of A-share non-financial sectors in the third quarter showed a certain improvement [1]. - For treasury bond futures, the central bank's restart of treasury bond trading boosted market sentiment. The economy continued its weak recovery, and the bond market is expected to be strong in November, but lacks the power to continue to strengthen, so short-term treasury bonds should be viewed with an interval oscillation mindset [2]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Research Views Stock Index Futures - The A-share market rose and oscillated, with the Wind All A up 1.19% and a trading volume of 2.08 trillion yuan. The Sino-US summit is conducive to the Chinese market. The Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China focused on several main lines, boosting market confidence. The structured market is expected to continue, but the valuation of the science and technology innovation index is at a historical extreme, so be cautious about chasing high prices. The focus of the market may return to fundamentals, and the performance of A-share non-financial sectors in the third quarter showed a certain improvement, with the cumulative revenue of the third quarter report up 0.3% year-on-year and the cumulative net profit up 1.65% year-on-year [1]. Treasury Bond Futures - Treasury bond futures closed with different performances. The central bank conducted 928 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repurchases on November 6, with a net withdrawal of 249.8 billion yuan. The central bank's restart of treasury bond trading boosted market sentiment. The economy continued its weak recovery, and the bond market is expected to be strong in November, but lacks the power to continue to strengthen, so short-term treasury bonds should be viewed with an interval oscillation mindset [1][2]. 2. Daily Price Changes - Stock Index Futures: IH rose 1.29%, IF rose 1.61%, IC rose 1.95%, and IM rose 1.29%. The Shanghai Composite 50 rose 1.22%, the CSI 300 rose 1.43%, the CSI 500 rose 1.61%, and the CSI 1000 rose 1.17% [3]. - Treasury Bond Futures: TS rose 0.01%, TF fell 0.04%, T fell 0.08%, and TL fell 0.27% [3]. - Treasury Bond Spot Yields: The yields of 2-year, 5-year, 10-year, and 30-year treasury bonds all increased [3]. 3. Market News - The Bank of England voted 5:4 to keep interest rates unchanged at 4.00%, interrupting the quarterly interest rate cuts since last August. The forward guidance removed the word "cautious" and adjusted it to "may continue along a gradually downward path." The 2025 GDP growth forecast was raised to 1.5%, and the 2025 CPI forecast was lowered to 2.5%. Traders expect a 15-basis-point interest rate cut in December. In the governor's press conference, it was mentioned that the economy may cool down too much and for too long, and the labor market is slowing down. The inflation rate in September is expected to be the peak, and a clearer downward path of inflation is needed [4]. 4. Chart Analysis Stock Index Futures - Provided the trend charts of IH, IF, IM, and IC main contracts and their monthly basis trends [5][6][7][8][9][10]. Treasury Bond Futures - Provided the trend charts of treasury bond futures main contracts, treasury bond spot yields, basis, inter - period spreads, cross - variety spreads, and capital interest rates [12][13][15][16][17]. Exchange Rates - Provided the trend charts of the US dollar against the RMB, the euro against the RMB, forward exchange rates, the US dollar index, and the euro against the US dollar, the British pound against the US dollar, and the US dollar against the Japanese yen [19][20][21][22][24][25].