光大期货煤化工商品日报-20251107

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Urea futures prices continued to oscillate strongly on Thursday, with the closing price of the main 01 contract at 1,644 yuan/ton, a slight increase of 0.74%. Spot prices were mostly stable. The daily output of the urea industry decreased slightly, and the demand follow - up sentiment improved. Although enterprise inventory increased by 1.53% this week, short - term market logic is shifting to factors such as coal cost support, reduced production of gas - based enterprises, and export rumors. The new export quota news may drive the market up, but caution is advised [1]. - Soda ash futures prices oscillated in a wide range and trended strongly on Thursday, with the closing price of the main 01 contract at 1,207 yuan/ton, a slight increase of 0.84%. Spot manufacturers' quotes were mostly stable, while traders' quotes continued to strengthen. This week, the industry's start - up rate and production decreased, and enterprise inventory increased slightly. Demand was stable, but the downstream was more cautious after the rebound. The fundamentals still face pressure, and excessive bullishness is not recommended [1]. - Glass futures prices fluctuated widely and trended weakly on Thursday, with the closing price of the main 01 contract at 1,101 yuan/ton, a slight decrease of 0.45%. The spot market rebounded slightly. The industry's production capacity decreased, and the demand sentiment was positive, but the sustainability needs verification. After the production line maintenance, the short - term market lacks new drivers and returns to a wide - range oscillation pattern [1]. Summary by Directory Market Information Urea - On November 6, the number of urea futures warehouse receipts on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange was 3,900, unchanged from the previous trading day, and the effective forecast was 1,192 [4]. - On November 6, the daily output of the urea industry was 19.59 tons, a decrease of 0.08 tons from the previous working day, and an increase of 1.22 tons compared with the same period last year. The start - up rate was 83.73%, 1.35 percentage points higher than 82.38% in the same period last year [4]. - On November 6, the spot prices of small - particle urea in various domestic regions were mostly unchanged. For example, the price in Shandong was 1,580 yuan/ton, in Henan was 1,570 yuan/ton, etc. [4]. - As of November 5, the urea enterprise inventory was 157.81 tons, an increase of 2.38 tons or 1.53% compared with last week [5]. Soda Ash & Glass - On November 6, the number of soda ash futures warehouse receipts on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange was 9,318, a decrease of 300 from the previous trading day, and the effective forecast was 756. The number of glass futures warehouse receipts was 219, a decrease of 34 from the previous trading day [7]. - On November 6, the spot prices of soda ash in different regions varied. For example, in North China, the light soda ash was 1,200 yuan/ton, and the heavy soda ash was 1,300 yuan/ton [7]. - As of the week of November 6, the soda ash industry's start - up rate was 85.67%, a decrease of 1.23 percentage points from the previous week. The weekly production was 74.69 tons, a decrease of 1.07 tons or 1.41% [7]. - As of November 6, the soda ash manufacturer inventory was 171.42 tons, an increase of 2.24 tons or 1.32% compared with Monday, and an increase of 1.22 tons or 0.72% compared with last Thursday [7]. - As of November 6, the average price of the float glass market was 1,157 yuan/ton, an increase of 3 yuan/ton from the previous day. The industry's daily output was 15.91 tons, a decrease of 0.014 tons from the previous day [7]. - As of November 6, the inventory of domestic float glass sample enterprises was 63.136 million weight boxes, a decrease of 2.654 million weight boxes or 4.03% from the previous week, and an increase of 29.05% compared with the same period last year. The inventory days were 27.1 days, a decrease of 0.9 days from last week [8]. Chart Analysis The report provides multiple charts, including the closing prices of the main contracts of urea and soda ash, their basis, trading volume and open interest, the price difference between different contracts, spot price trends, and the price difference between different futures varieties. All chart data sources are iFind and the Research Institute of Everbright Futures [10][22][23]. Research Team Introduction - Zhang Xiaojin, the research director of resource products at the Research Institute of Everbright Futures, focuses on the sugar industry. She has rich experience and many honors in the industry [25]. - Zhang Linglu, an analyst of resource products at the Research Institute of Everbright Futures, is responsible for the research of futures varieties such as urea, soda ash, and glass. She has participated in many projects and won multiple awards [25]. - Sun Chengzhen, an analyst of resource products at the Research Institute of Everbright Futures, is mainly engaged in the fundamental research and data analysis of varieties such as cotton, cotton yarn, and ferroalloys [25].