黑色商品日报-20251107

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Views of the Report - Steel: The rebar market is in a situation of weak supply and demand. With high inventory, the supply - demand drive remains under pressure, but the strength of coking coal provides cost support for steel prices. It is expected that the short - term rebar futures market will operate in a weak and volatile manner [1]. - Iron Ore: In the short term, the supply has decreased, demand has weakened, and inventory has increased. The ore price shows a weak and volatile trend [1]. - Coking Coal: The supply of some high - quality resources is still tight, and the demand for high - quality coking coal is strong. However, the acceptance of some high - priced resources by downstream is low. It is expected that the short - term coking coal futures market will operate in a wide - range volatile manner [1]. - Coke: The third round of price increases has been implemented, but the steel market is entering the off - season, and the demand for coke has declined slightly. It is expected that the short - term coke futures market will operate in a wide - range volatile manner [1]. - Manganese Silicon: The market sentiment is boosted, and the cost side provides some support, but the overall fundamental driving force is limited. It is expected to remain volatile in the short term [1][3]. - Silicon Iron: The cost support has increased, but the driving force for continuous upward movement is limited. It is expected to operate in a firm and volatile manner in the short term, subject to market sentiment and the pricing of the new round of steel tenders [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - Steel: The rebar 2601 contract closed at 3037 yuan/ton, up 13 yuan/ton or 0.43%, with a decrease of 11,400 lots in positions. Spot prices rose slightly, and the national building materials trading volume was 110,300 tons. The rebar production, inventory decline, and apparent demand all showed a weak trend [1]. - Iron Ore: The main contract i2601 of iron ore futures closed at 777.5 yuan/ton, up 1.5 yuan/ton or 0.2%, with a trading volume of 260,000 lots and a reduction of 7,000 lots in positions. The supply decreased, demand weakened, and inventory increased [1]. - Coking Coal: The coking coal 2601 contract closed at 1290.5 yuan/ton, up 22 yuan/ton or 1.73%, with an increase of 30,130 lots in positions. The supply of some high - quality resources is tight, and the demand for high - quality coking coal is strong [1]. - Coke: The coke 2601 contract closed at 1776.5 yuan/ton, up 23.5 yuan/ton or 1.34%, with a decrease of 248 lots in positions. The third round of price increases was implemented, but the demand declined slightly [1]. - Manganese Silicon: The main contract of manganese silicon futures closed at 5798 yuan/ton, up 0.73%, with a decrease of 2,290 lots in positions to 351,100 lots. The supply was relatively stable, demand was low, and inventory was under pressure [1][3]. - Silicon Iron: The main contract of silicon iron futures closed at 5586 yuan/ton, up 1.34%, with an increase of 831 lots in positions to 169,600 lots. The cost support increased, but the driving force for continuous upward movement was limited [3]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - Contract Spreads and Basis: Data on contract spreads (such as 1 - 5 months, 5 - 10 months) and basis for various varieties (rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, etc.) are provided, along with their changes compared to the previous period [4]. - Profit and Price Spreads: Information on profits (e.g., rebar disk profit, long - process profit) and price spreads (e.g., coil - rebar spread, rebar - iron ore ratio) is presented, including their latest values and changes [4]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - Main Contract Prices: Charts show the closing prices of the main contracts of rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and silicon iron from 2020 to 2025 [5][6][7][10][14]. - Main Contract Basis: Charts display the basis of rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and silicon iron over different time periods [15][16][17][20][22]. - Inter - period Contract Spreads: Charts present the spreads of different contracts (e.g., 01 - 05, 05 - 10) for various varieties [24][25][27][31][33][34][37][40]. - Inter - variety Contract Spreads: Charts show the spreads between different varieties (e.g., coil - rebar spread, rebar - iron ore ratio) [43][44][45][46]. - Rebar Profit: Charts illustrate the disk profit, long - process profit, and short - process profit of rebar from 2020 to 2025 [47][48][52]. 3.4 Black Research Team Members Introduction - Qiu Yuecheng: The assistant director of the research institute and the director of black research at Everbright Futures, with nearly 20 years of experience in the steel industry [54]. - Zhang Xiaojin: The director of resource product research at Everbright Futures, with rich experience in the field of power coal [54]. - Liu Xi: A black researcher at Everbright Futures, good at fundamental supply - demand analysis based on industrial chain data [54]. - Zhang Chunjie: A black researcher at Everbright Futures, with experience in investment trading strategies and spot - futures operations [55].