光大期货软商品日报-20251107

Group 1: Investment Ratings - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - Cotton: On Thursday, ICE U.S. cotton fell 1.15% to 64.48 cents per pound, while CF601 rose 0.52% to 13,605 yuan per ton. The position of the main contract decreased by 1,553 lots to 579,100 lots. The spot price index of cotton 3128B was 14,490 yuan per ton, up 40 yuan from the previous day. The market focus is on the macro - level. The expectation of a Fed rate cut in December is fluctuating. U.S. cotton prices declined as the U.S. dollar index weakened. Zhengzhou cotton is oscillating around 13,600 yuan per ton. The adjustment of Sino - U.S. tariffs will take effect on November 10, boosting market sentiment. Currently, Zhengzhou cotton is under pressure but also has support. This year's new cotton has a bumper harvest, resulting in significant supply - side pressure. The support comes from consumption, cost, and expectations. There is no strong new driver on both supply and demand sides, and the supply - demand contradiction within the year is not prominent. It is expected that Zhengzhou cotton will oscillate at the current price in the short term, waiting for new drivers [1]. - Sugar: The spot price of Guangxi sugar - making group is 5,620 - 5,700 yuan per ton, with some prices up 20 yuan per ton. Yunnan sugar - making group's old sugar is priced at 5,530 - 5,580 yuan per ton, and new sugar at 5,490 - 5,690 yuan per ton. The raw sugar price hit a five - year low last night and then rebounded slightly. With the expected bumper harvests in India, Thailand, and China, the short - term sugar price rebound is weak. Guangxi sugar mills are actively reducing inventory to prepare for the new crushing season. There is no significant new driver in the market, and the price center is slowly moving down. The support at 5,400 yuan per ton needs further verification. Attention should be paid to the import data for October [1]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Daily Data Monitoring - Cotton: The 1 - 5 contract spread is - 10 yuan, down 5 yuan; the main contract basis is 1,215 yuan, up 5 yuan. The spot price in Xinjiang is 14,618 yuan per ton, down 9 yuan, and the national spot price is 14,820 yuan per ton, down 5 yuan [2]. - Sugar: The 1 - 5 contract spread is 50 yuan, down 4 yuan; the main contract basis is 242 yuan, down 7 yuan. The spot price in Liuzhou is 5,690 yuan per ton, unchanged [2]. 2. Market Information - Cotton: On November 6, the number of cotton futures warehouse receipts was 2,769, an increase of 17 from the previous trading day, and the effective forecast was 1,512. The arrival prices of cotton in different regions on November 6 were: 14,618 yuan per ton in Xinjiang, 14,852 yuan per ton in Henan, 14,869 yuan per ton in Shandong, and 14,950 yuan per ton in Zhejiang. On November 6, the comprehensive load of yarn was 51.3, unchanged from the previous day; the comprehensive inventory of yarn was 26.6, unchanged; the comprehensive load of staple - fiber cloth was 51.9, unchanged; and the comprehensive inventory of staple - fiber cloth was 30.4, unchanged [3]. - Sugar: On November 6, the spot price of sugar in Liuzhou was 5,690 yuan per ton, unchanged from the previous day. The number of sugar futures warehouse receipts was 7,422, unchanged from the previous trading day, and the effective forecast was 1,586 [4][5]. 3. Chart Analysis - The report provides multiple charts for cotton and sugar, including the closing price, basis, 1 - 5 spread, warehouse receipts and effective forecasts, and price index of cotton, as well as the closing price, basis, 1 - 5 spread, and warehouse receipts and effective forecasts of sugar [7][14]. 4. Research Team Introduction - The research team includes Zhang Xiaojin, the director of resource product research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, who focuses on the sugar industry; Zhang Linglu, an analyst responsible for futures varieties such as urea and soda - ash glass; and Sun Chengzhen, an analyst mainly engaged in the fundamental research and data analysis of cotton, cotton yarn, and ferroalloys [19][20][21]. 5. Contact Information - The company is located at Unit 703, 6th Floor, No. 729, Yanggao South Road, China (Shanghai) Pilot Free Trade Zone. The company phone is 021 - 80212222, the fax is 021 - 80212200, the customer service hotline is 400 - 700 - 7979, and the postal code is 200127 [24].