京基智农（000048）：养殖成本优势稳固，新业务布局未来

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [1] Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 3.67 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 20.12%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 298 million yuan, down 50.50% year-on-year [2] - The decline in performance is primarily attributed to falling pig prices and the real estate sector's transition to inventory clearance, although the core breeding business remains resilient [3] - The company has optimized breeding costs, with the overall cost of pig breeding reduced to approximately 13.3 yuan/kg by the end of August 2025, maintaining profitability despite declining sales prices [4] - The real estate business is being steadily cleared, with inventory at 590 million yuan as of June 2025, while a new business initiative in trendy fashion and art IP is expected to open new growth avenues [5] - The company plans to increase pig output to approximately 2.3 million heads in 2025, with a focus on improving production efficiency and disease prevention [6] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 3.67 billion yuan, down 20.12% year-on-year, and a net profit of 298 million yuan, down 50.50% year-on-year [2] - The third quarter alone saw a revenue of 1.28 billion yuan, a decrease of 32.25% year-on-year, and a net profit of 71.76 million yuan, down 80.41% year-on-year [2] Business Analysis - The core breeding business showed resilience despite market challenges, with revenue from breeding activities at approximately 2.9 billion yuan, a decline of 1.86% year-on-year, and a net profit of about 308 million yuan, down 26.29% year-on-year [3] - The company has maintained a competitive edge in cost control, with breeding costs decreasing consistently [4] Strategic Outlook - The real estate business is undergoing planned inventory clearance, with remaining inventory valued at 590 million yuan as of June 2025 [5] - The new IP business launched in May 2025 is expected to create a second growth curve for the company [5] - The company has set a target of 2.3 million pigs for 2025, with a focus on enhancing production performance and disease management [6] Earnings Forecast - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 have been adjusted to 7.25 billion yuan, 9.37 billion yuan, and 11.88 billion yuan, respectively, with net profit estimates revised to 257 million yuan, 790 million yuan, and 966 million yuan [6]