10月进出口数据点评：出口转负，后续怎么看？

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The export growth rate turned negative in October, which was lower than expected, mainly due to the high base last year, tightened trade relations, and the misalignment of the Mid - Autumn Festival. However, there is no need to be overly pessimistic about the export situation in the future [1][2][6] - The import growth rate also declined in October, and the trade surplus was lower than market expectations [5] - The export in the fourth quarter may be weaker than that in the third quarter, but external demand has not significantly deteriorated, and there are positive signals in high - frequency data [6][7][8] - The bond market may maintain range - bound fluctuations, and the tariff game entering a "quiet period" may provide a stable external environment for equity assets [8] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Export Situation in October - Overall Export: In October, the year - on - year export growth rate was - 1.1% in US dollars, the first negative growth since March this year, lower than the market forecast of 2.9% and the previous value of 8.3%. The month - on - month growth rate was - 7.0%, also significantly lower than the average value of the past five years [1] - By Product Category: Integrated circuits, automobiles (including chassis), and ships performed well, with year - on - year export growth rates of 26.9%, 34.0%, and 68.4% respectively. Other mechanical and electrical products generally performed poorly. Consumer electronics and labor - intensive product exports weakened. The decline in furniture and home appliance exports may be related to the increase in tariffs [3] - By Export Destination: The decline in exports to the US slightly narrowed, with a year - on - year growth rate of - 25.2% and the proportion in total exports rising to 11.4%. Exports to ASEAN and the EU slowed down, with year - on - year growth rates of 11.0% and 0.9% respectively, and the shares remained stable [4] 3.2 Import Situation in October - The year - on - year import growth rate was 1.0% in US dollars, lower than the market forecast of 2.7% and the previous value of 7.4%. The month - on - month growth rate turned negative at - 9.5%, also lower than the average value of the past five years. The trade surplus was 900.7 billion US dollars, lower than the market forecast and the previous value [5] - By major imported commodities, the import growth rate of integrated circuits decreased by 3.8 percentage points to 10.2%, while the import growth rates of iron ore, soybeans, and crude oil increased [5] 3.3 Outlook for the Future - Export Outlook: Although the export declined significantly in October, there is no need to be overly pessimistic. The decline was affected by the high base last year and the misalignment of the Mid - Autumn Festival. External demand has not significantly deteriorated and is expected to recover further after the tariff risk decreases. High - frequency data shows positive signals [6][7][8] - Asset Outlook: The bond market may maintain range - bound fluctuations, and there is no sign of a trend - based market yet. The tariff game entering a "quiet period" may provide a stable external environment for equity assets [8]