中国东航（600115）：Q3 业绩超预期增长，免签助力国际战略

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Buy" for China Eastern Airlines (600115) [2][12]. Core Views - The company achieved significant profit growth in Q3 2025, exceeding market expectations despite weaker public and commercial demand, indicating strong future profit potential [3][12]. - The international strategy, supported by visa-free policies, is expected to enhance long-term profitability as the company builds an international hub network [3][12]. Financial Summary - Total revenue is projected to grow from 113.79 billion RMB in 2023 to 164.11 billion RMB by 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 7.1% [5]. - Net profit is expected to turn positive in 2025, reaching 1.11 billion RMB, and further increasing to 8.77 billion RMB by 2027, with a significant growth rate of 329.1% in 2026 [5]. - Earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to improve from -0.37 RMB in 2023 to 0.39 RMB in 2027 [5]. Market Data - The stock price has ranged between 3.56 RMB and 5.01 RMB over the past 52 weeks, with a current market capitalization of 110.57 billion RMB [6]. - The company has a total share capital of 22.29 billion shares, with 17.11 billion shares in circulation [6]. Operational Highlights - In Q3 2025, the company reported a 34% year-on-year increase in net profit, reaching 35 billion RMB, showcasing its ability to outperform industry expectations [12]. - The passenger load factor reached a record high of 86.9% in Q3 2025, up 2.3 percentage points year-on-year [12]. - The company’s ASK (Available Seat Kilometers) increased by 6% year-on-year, with international ASK growing by 13% [12]. Strategic Initiatives - The visa-free policy has been extended until the end of 2026, which is expected to drive international demand and support the company's hub strategy centered around Shanghai [12]. - The company is actively developing transit routes connecting Northeast Asia and Europe, which has resulted in a 23% increase in transit passengers in the first half of 2025 [12].