瑞达期货甲醇市场周报-20251107

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The MA2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2080 - 2150 in the short term [7] - The domestic methanol market continued to decline this week, with both port and inland prices falling. The market sentiment was significantly impacted by the sharp decline in the futures market and the continuous back - flow of port supplies [8] - Recently, the output loss from domestic methanol maintenance and production cuts is less than the output from restored production capacity, leading to an overall increase in production. The inventory of enterprises increased slightly, and the port inventory accumulated slightly [8] - The operating rate of the olefin industry continued to decline this week, and it may decline slightly in the short term after the hedging of expected load changes of enterprises in different regions [8] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Summary - Strategy suggestion: The MA2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2080 - 2150 in the short term [7] - Market review: The port methanol market continued to decline this week, with prices in Jiangsu ranging from 2050 - 2200 yuan/ton and in Guangdong from 2080 - 2190 yuan/ton. Inland methanol prices also continued to decline. The futures market declined significantly, and the market sentiment was impacted [8] - Market outlook: The overall domestic methanol production increased. The enterprise inventory increased slightly, the port inventory accumulated slightly, and the olefin industry operating rate continued to decline and may decline slightly in the short term [8] 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets 3.2.1 Futures Market - Futures price: The price of the main contract of Zhengzhou methanol futures fluctuated and closed down this week, with a weekly decline of 3.12% [12] - Inter - period spread: As of November 7, the MA 1 - 5 spread was - 101 [16] - Position analysis: As of November 7, the number of Zhengzhou methanol warehouse receipts was 10,914, a decrease of 923 compared to last week [25] 3.2.2 Spot Market - Domestic spot price: As of November 6, the mainstream price in East China's Taicang area was 2087.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 82.5 yuan/ton compared to last week; the mainstream price in Northwest Inner Mongolia was 1980 yuan/ton, a decrease of 25 yuan/ton compared to last week. The price difference between East and Northwest China was 107.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 57.5 yuan/ton compared to last week [31] - Foreign spot price: As of November 6, the CFR price of methanol at the main Chinese port was 244 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 13 US dollars/ton compared to last week. The price difference between Southeast Asia and the main Chinese port was 79 US dollars/ton, an increase of 13 US dollars/ton compared to last week [37] - Basis: As of November 6, the basis of Zhengzhou methanol was - 37.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 17.5 yuan/ton compared to last week [41] 3.3 Industry Chain Analysis 3.3.1 Upstream - Coal and natural gas prices: As of November 5, the market price of Qinhuangdao thermal coal with a calorific value of 5500 kcal was 695 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan/ton compared to last week. As of November 6, the closing price of NYMEX natural gas was 4.41 US dollars/million British thermal units, an increase of 0.35 US dollars/million British thermal units compared to last week [44] 3.3.2 Industry - Production and operating rate: As of November 6, China's methanol production was 1,992,055 tons, an increase of 26,860 tons compared to last week, and the device capacity utilization rate was 87.79%, a month - on - month increase of 1.36% [47] - Inventory: As of November 5, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises was 386,400 tons, an increase of 10,400 tons compared to the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 2.75%; the sample enterprise orders to be delivered were 221,100 tons, an increase of 5500 tons compared to the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 2.57%. The total inventory of Chinese methanol ports was 1,517,100 tons, an increase of 10,600 tons compared to the previous data. The inventory in East China increased, while that in South China decreased [52] - Import volume and profit: In September 2025, China's methanol import volume was 1.4269 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 18.92%; from January to September 2025, China's cumulative methanol import volume was 9.6667 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.94%. As of November 5, the methanol import profit was - 50 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10.5 yuan/ton compared to last week [55] 3.3.3 Downstream - Operating rate: As of November 6, the capacity utilization rate of domestic methanol - to - olefin devices was 90.60%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.37%. The olefin industry operating rate continued to decline [58] - Profit: As of November 7, the domestic methanol - to - olefin on - screen profit was - 672 yuan/ton, a decrease of 127 yuan/ton compared to last week [61] 3.4 Options Market Analysis - Not provided in the content