沪镍不锈钢市场周报：需求乏力库存增加，镍不锈钢震荡偏弱-20251107

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The nickel price is expected to fluctuate weakly due to factors such as unclear Fed's December interest - rate cut direction, increased nickel resource supply cost, limited growth in refined nickel production, weak demand in the stainless - steel market, and rising domestic and overseas nickel inventories [7]. - The stainless - steel market faces supply pressure as production is expected to increase, while demand is lackluster, leading to a narrow increase in social inventory. It is expected to be in a downward trend [7]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Summary Nickel - Weekly Review: The main contract of Shanghai nickel fluctuated and declined this week, with a weekly change of - 0.95% and an amplitude of 1.92%. The closing price of the main contract was 119,440 yuan/ton [7]. - Market Outlook: Macroeconomic factors are uncertain; on the fundamental side, supply cost rises, production growth is limited, demand has both positive and negative factors, and inventories are rising. Technically, the short - selling sentiment is strong [7]. - Strategy Recommendation: It is recommended to wait and see or short on rebounds, paying attention to the pressure of MA10 [7]. Stainless Steel - Weekly Review: The stainless - steel market fluctuated and declined this week, with a weekly change of - 0.71% and an amplitude of 1.62%. The closing price of the main contract was 12,565 yuan/ton [7]. - Market Outlook: Raw material cost has decreased, supply pressure is increasing, demand is weak, and technically, the downward trend is obvious [7]. - Strategy Recommendation: It is recommended to wait and see or short on highs, paying attention to the downward - channel range [7]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Price Movement - As of November 7, the closing price of Shanghai nickel was 119,440 yuan/ton, down 1,150 yuan/ton from last week; the closing price of stainless steel was 12,565 yuan/ton, down 90 yuan/ton from last week [13]. - As of November 7, the average price of nickel pig iron (1.5 - 1.7%) was 3,200 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan/ton from last week; the average price of nickel iron (7 - 10%) nationwide was 920 yuan/nickel, down 10 yuan/nickel from last week [13]. Basis - As of November 7, the spot price of electrolytic nickel was 120,900 yuan/ton, with a basis of 1,460 yuan/ton; the closing price of stainless steel was 13,350 yuan/ton, with a basis of 785 yuan/ton. The basis of Shanghai nickel remained stable, while that of stainless steel decreased [19]. Price Ratio - As of November 7, the price ratio of Shanghai nickel to stainless steel was 9.51, down 0.02 from last week; the price ratio of Shanghai tin to Shanghai nickel was 2.37 yuan/ton, up 0.02 from last week. The nickel - stainless - steel ratio fluctuated, and the tin - nickel ratio increased [26]. Net Long Positions of Top 20 - As of November 7, the net long positions of the top 20 in Shanghai nickel were - 32,039 lots, an increase of 4,648 lots from November 3; the net long positions of the top 20 in stainless steel were - 11,188 lots, an increase of 9,020 lots from November 3. The net long positions of Shanghai nickel were at a low level, while those of stainless steel rebounded [32]. 3.3 Industrial Chain Supply Side - Nickel Ore Inventory: As of October 31, the nickel - ore inventory in major domestic ports was 1.4791 billion tons, a decrease of 188,100 tons from last week [37]. - Electrolytic Nickel Production and Import: In September 2025, the electrolytic nickel production was 36,795 tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.25%. In September 2025, the import volume of refined nickel and alloys was 28,570.87 tons, a year - on - year increase of 16.97%; from January to September, the cumulative import volume was 187,185.981 tons, a year - on - year increase of 200.63% [41]. - Exchange Inventories: As of November 7, the Shanghai Futures Exchange nickel inventory was 37,187 tons, an increase of 4,068 tons from last week; the LME nickel inventory was 253,104 tons, an increase of 21,474 tons from last week [48][49]. Demand Side - Stainless - Steel Production and Trade: In September 2025, the total stainless - steel production was 3.4267 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.35%. The import volume was 116,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3,100 tons; the export volume was 348,600 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 21,800 tons. From January to September, the cumulative net import volume was - 2.067 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 231,900 tons [53]. - Regional Inventories: As of November 7, the 300 - series stainless - steel inventory in Foshan was 292,241 tons, an increase of 5,015 tons from last week; the inventory in Wuxi was 570,765 tons, a decrease of 482 tons from last week [58]. - Stainless - Steel Production Profit: As of November 7, the stainless - steel production profit was - 121 yuan/ton, a decrease of 36 yuan/ton from last week [62]. - Downstream Industries: - Real Estate: From January to September 2025, the new housing construction area was 453.9932 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 18.9%; the housing completion area was 311.2888 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 15.3%; real - estate development investment was 677.0571 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 13.9% [66]. - Home Appliances: In September 2025, the air - conditioner production was 18.0948 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 3.96%; the household refrigerator production was 10.1276 million units, a year - on - year increase of 5.18%; the household washing - machine production was 11.7849 million units, a year - on - year increase of 7.43%; the freezer production was 2.5443 million units, a year - on - year increase of 5% [66]. - Automobiles and Machinery: In September 2025, the new - energy vehicle production was 3.276 million units, a year - on - year increase of 48%; the sales volume was 3.226 million units, a year - on - year increase of 41.7%. The excavator production was 31,608 units, a year - on - year increase of 15.3%; the large - and medium - sized tractor production was 26,215 units, a year - on - year increase of 2.5%; the small - tractor production was 10,000 units, a year - on - year decrease of 9.1% [69].