Report Overview - Report Date: November 07, 2025 [3] - Data Sources: Wind, Guantong Research and Consulting Department [5] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Views - On November 07, domestic futures main contracts showed mixed performance. Lithium carbonate rose over 3%, while asphalt fell over 2%. In terms of funds, CSI 1000 2512 had an inflow of 1.317 billion, while CSI 500 2512 had an outflow of 2.531 billion [6][7] - Different futures varieties have different supply - demand situations and price trends, affected by factors such as production, consumption, policy, and international events [9][11][12] Market Summary - As of the close on November 07, domestic futures main contracts showed mixed performance. Lithium carbonate, industrial silicon, urea, etc. rose, while asphalt, iron ore, etc. fell. In terms of stock index futures, IM rose 0.14%, while IF, IH, and IC fell. In terms of bond futures, all contracts fell. In terms of funds, CSI 1000 2512,沪铝 2601, and lithium carbonate 2601 had inflows, while CSI 500 2512,沪深 300 2512, and上证 50 2512 had outflows [6][7] Market Analysis Copper - Today, Shanghai copper opened high and then declined during the day. In October 2025, the operating rate of anode copper enterprises increased, with a decrease in the operating rate of mineral anode copper and an increase in that of recycled copper. The smelting processing fee was negative and stable, indicating tight copper resources. The accident in the Indonesian copper mine will affect global supply. There was an increase in copper concentrate inventory this week but still lower than last year. In November, 5 smelters are expected to have maintenance plans. In October, the import of unwrought copper and copper products decreased by 9.7%. With the rise in copper prices, downstream demand was suppressed, and there was a slight inventory build - up. Overall, copper showed a pattern of weak supply and demand, and the price was consolidating [9] Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate opened low and then rose during the day. In October 2025, domestic production increased month - on - month by 6% and year - on - year by 55%. The operating rate increased this week. Driven by the strong performance of energy - storage batteries, downstream demand was good. The production of power, energy - storage, and consumer batteries in October increased by 22.4% month - on - month and 45.3% year - on - year. The application process for the mining license of Jianxiawo is ongoing, and the supply is expected to be tight in the short term. The contract price recovered previous losses. In the short term, the market is expected to oscillate strongly due to the tight balance of supply and demand and inventory reduction [11] Crude Oil - On November 2, OPEC+ decided to increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in December, the same as in October and November, and suspend production increase in the first quarter of next year. Saudi Aramco lowered the official selling price of crude oil to Asia in December. The peak consumption season ended, with an unexpected decline in gasoline inventory and an unexpected increase in US crude oil inventory. The US crude oil production reached a new high. EIA and IEA predicted an increase in global oil inventory. The market was worried about demand. Although the supply was in an over - supply situation, the export of Russian crude oil was expected to be restricted, and the relationship between the US and Venezuela was tense. The US President has not decided whether to attack ground targets in Venezuela. India may reduce imports of Russian crude oil. Overall, the crude oil price is expected to oscillate in the near term [12][14] Asphalt - This week, the asphalt operating rate decreased by 1.8 percentage points to 31.5%. In November, the expected production decreased by 16.9% month - on - month and 11.0% year - on - year. The operating rate of downstream industries mostly increased, but the national shipment volume decreased by 6.79% to 308,800 tons. The inventory - to - sales ratio of asphalt refineries continued to decline slightly. Some refineries plan to resume production. The demand in the north is affected by funds, and the demand in the south will weaken due to increased rainfall. After the market digested the news of Russian oil sanctions and the Sino - US leaders' meeting, the crude oil price oscillated. The asphalt basis in Shandong decreased from a high level, and the spot price continued to fall. The asphalt futures price is expected to oscillate weakly [15] PP - The downstream operating rate of PP increased by 0.52 percentage points to 53.14%. On November 7, some maintenance devices restarted, and the enterprise operating rate rose to about 83.5%. The production ratio of standard - grade drawn products rose to about 26%. The petrochemical inventory is at a neutral level. After the market digested the news of Russian oil sanctions and the Sino - US leaders' meeting, the crude oil price oscillated narrowly. The new capacity of 400,000 tons/year of PetroChina Guangxi Petrochemical was put into operation in mid - October, and the number of maintenance devices decreased recently. Although it is the peak season for downstream industries, the follow - up of orders is limited, and the demand for Double Eleven stocking is lower than expected. There is no large - scale centralized procurement. Traders generally offer discounts to stimulate sales. PP is expected to oscillate weakly in the near term [16] Plastic - On November 7, the number of maintenance devices changed little, and the plastic operating rate remained at about 89.5%. The downstream operating rate of PE decreased by 0.52 percentage points to 44.85%. The agricultural film industry is in the peak season, with an increase in orders, but the overall downstream operating rate is still at a low level. The petrochemical inventory is at a neutral level. After the market digested the news of Russian oil sanctions and the Sino - US leaders' meeting, the crude oil price oscillated narrowly. The new capacity of 500,000 tons/year of ExxonMobil (Huizhou) LDPE was in trial operation, and 800,000 tons/year of PetroChina Guangxi Petrochemical was recently put into operation. The operating rate of plastic increased. Although the agricultural film industry is in the peak season, the peak season is not as expected, and the downstream operating rate has declined. Traders are cautious about the future market and actively sell at reduced prices. Plastic is expected to oscillate weakly in the near term [17][18] PVC - The price of calcium carbide in the northwest region decreased at the beginning of the week and then stabilized. The operating rate of PVC increased by 2.49 percentage points to 80.75%. The downstream operating rate of PVC began to decline slightly. India postponed the BIS policy until December 24, 2025. The price quoted by Formosa Plastics in Taiwan in November decreased by 30 - 40 US dollars/ton. The anti - dumping tax on PVC imports from China increased. Although the export in September was good, the export in the fourth quarter is expected to weaken. The social inventory increased slightly this week and remained high. From January to September 2025, the real estate market was still in adjustment, and the transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium - sized cities was at a low level. The comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali is positive, and the operating rate of PVC is higher than in previous years. There is new production capacity. The PVC futures price fell below the previous low, and the market was sluggish. PVC is expected to oscillate weakly in the near term [19] Coking Coal - Coking coal opened high and then declined during the day. The spot price in the Shanxi market remained unchanged. The production of raw coal and coking coal decreased. The policy at the end of the year led to production cuts and environmental protection warnings, resulting in tight resources at the mine end. The inventory of mines and coking enterprises increased, while that of steel mills decreased. The operating rate of steel mills and the molten iron output decreased this week, and the profit of steel mills continued to decline, with expected future production cuts. The import tariff of US coking coal decreased to 13% but was still relatively high. Overall, the weak demand from downstream steel mills led to insufficient support for coking coal prices, and the market was weaker than before [20] Urea - Urea opened high and rose nearly 2% during the day. The fourth batch of 600,000 tons of urea export quotas was released, stimulating the price increase of upstream factories. The daily output remained at 200,000 tons, and the downstream demand increased. The operating load of compound fertilizers remained flat this week and is expected to start increasing. The inventory in urea factories increased, and it is expected to remain at a relatively high level this year. It is difficult to digest the inventory only by domestic demand. After the impact of the export quota news fades, the market will return to fundamentals [21][22]
每日核心期货品种分析-20251107
Guan Tong Qi Huo·2025-11-07 09:55