Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-11-07 09:52Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the fundamental negative factors in the natural rubber market were gradually digested, and rubber prices first declined and then rose. The offer price of imported rubber in the market decreased, and the trading atmosphere was average. The futures market showed a weak oscillation, and the spot offer price of domestic natural rubber adjusted slightly within the range. - Globally, natural rubber producing areas are in the tapping season. In Yunnan, raw material prices are basically stable with relatively abundant supplies, while in Hainan, due to limited improvement in precipitation, tapping operations have resumed slowly, with a relatively small total supply of raw materials. - The total inventory at Qingdao Port has increased significantly. The bonded warehouse has seen a slight decrease in inventory, while the general trade warehouse has a large increase. Overseas arrivals have increased, and the total inbound volume of warehouses in Qingdao has increased significantly month - on - month. However, tire factories have sufficient inventory after previous replenishment and are mostly on the sidelines regarding high - priced raw materials. - This week, the production scheduling of domestic tire maintenance enterprises has returned to the normal level, driving a slight increase in the overall capacity utilization rate. Most other enterprises' equipment is operating stably. Next week, most enterprises will maintain stable production, but it is heard that an individual enterprise has a maintenance plan in the middle of the month, which may drag down the overall capacity utilization rate [8]. - The ru2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 14,700 - 15,200 in the short term, and the nr2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 11,800 - 12,250 in the short term [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Week - to - Week Summary - Market Review: The fundamental negative factors in the natural rubber market were gradually digested this week, with rubber prices first falling and then rising. Imported rubber offers declined, and the trading atmosphere was average. The futures market was weakly oscillating, and domestic natural rubber spot offers adjusted slightly. - Market Outlook: Global natural rubber producing areas are in the tapping season. Yunnan has stable raw material prices and abundant supplies, while Hainan has slow recovery in tapping and limited raw material supply. Qingdao Port's total inventory has increased significantly, with a slight decrease in the bonded warehouse and a large increase in the general trade warehouse. Overseas arrivals are increasing, but tire factories are cautious about high - priced raw materials. The production of domestic tire enterprises is generally stable, but an individual enterprise may have a maintenance plan. - Strategy Suggestion: The ru2601 contract is expected to fluctuate between 14,700 - 15,200, and the nr2601 contract between 11,800 - 12,250 in the short term [8]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets - Futures Market - Price Movement: This week, the main contract price of Shanghai rubber futures oscillated and closed down, with a weekly decline of 0.6%; the main contract price of 20 - rubber oscillated and closed down, with a weekly decline of 1.67% [13]. - Position Analysis: As of November 7, the spread between Shanghai rubber contracts 1 - 5 was - 75, and the spread between 20 - rubber contracts 1 - 2 was - 30 [21]. - Warehouse Receipts: As of November 7, Shanghai rubber warehouse receipts were 118,970 tons, a decrease of 1,930 tons from last week; 20 - rubber warehouse receipts were 48,586 tons, an increase of 3,931 tons from last week [27]. - Spot Market - Domestic Natural Rubber Spot Price: As of November 6, the price of state - owned full - latex was 14,550 yuan/ton, a decrease of 250 yuan/ton from last week [29]. - 20 - Rubber Basis and Non - Standard Basis: As of November 6, the 20 - rubber basis was 905 yuan/ton, an increase of 156 yuan/ton from last week; the non - standard basis was - 465 yuan/ton, an increase of 5 yuan/ton from last week [36]. 3.3 Industry Situation - Upstream - Thailand: As of November 6, the price of field latex in the Thai natural rubber raw material market was 56.3 (+0.3) Thai baht/kg; the price of cup lump was 51.9 (-1.4) Thai baht/kg. As of November 7, the theoretical processing profit of standard rubber was - 23.4 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 30 US dollars/ton from last week [39]. - Domestic Producing Areas: As of November 6, the price of Yunnan latex was 13,700 yuan/ton, a decrease of 500 yuan/ton from last week; the price of fresh latex in Hainan was 14,200 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week [42]. - Import Quantity: According to customs data, in September 2025, China's natural rubber (including technical - classified rubber, latex, smoked sheets, primary forms, mixed rubber, and composite rubber) imports were 595,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 14.41% and a year - on - year increase of 20.92%. From January to September 2025, the cumulative import volume was 4,717,200 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 19.65% [45]. - Inventory in Qingdao: As of November 2, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 447,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 15,400 tons, or 3.57%. The bonded area inventory was 68,300 tons, a decrease of 0.58%; the general trade inventory was 379,400 tons, an increase of 4.36% [49]. - Downstream - Tire Capacity Utilization: As of November 6, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 72.89%, a month - on - month increase of 0.77 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 7.03 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of full - steel tire sample enterprises was 65.37%, a month - on - month increase of 0.03 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 6.51 percentage points [52]. - Tire Exports: In September 2025, China's tire exports were 687,800 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 10.57% and a year - on - year increase of 4.05%. From January to September, the cumulative tire exports were 6,390,800 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 4.88%. - Domestic Heavy - Truck Sales: In September 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 105,000 vehicles (wholesale, including exports and new energy), a month - on - month increase of 15% and a year - on - year increase of about 82%. From January to September, the cumulative sales exceeded 800,000 vehicles, reaching 821,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 20% [59]. 3.4 Option Market Analysis No relevant information provided.