黑色金属周报：双焦：焦煤价格偏强运行，焦化利润维持低位-20251107

Report Information - Report Title: Black Metal Weekly - Coking Coal and Coke [1] - Date: November 7, 2025 [2] - Analyst: Bai Jing [2] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - For coking coal, the current supply recovery is slow due to factors such as underground issues and environmental protection, while downstream demand remains stable. With the successful third round of coke price increases and expectations of a fourth round, coking coal prices are strongly supported in the short - term, with an expected fluctuation range of 1200 - 1320 yuan/ton [7]. - For coke, both supply and demand have weakened recently. Although there is short - term support from coal supply constraints and cost factors, and the third round of price increases has been implemented with expectations of a fourth round, the narrowing profit of downstream steel mills may lead to price negotiations. Therefore, coke prices are expected to fluctuate in the short - term [46]. Summary by Sections Part 1: Coking Coal Price - As of October 23, the warehouse receipt price of Meng 5 raw coal was 1322 yuan/ton (-15), and that of Shanxi single coal was 1338 yuan/ton (+70). The warehouse receipt price of Canadian Lukin was 1302 yuan/ton (+98). The price of the coking coal main contract fluctuated narrowly, down 1.24% from the previous trading week, and the JM1 - 5 spread was -46.5 yuan/ton (+21.5) [5]. Fundamentals - Supply: In Shanxi, coal mines further reduced production this week, with a significant decline in production in the Lvliang area. Some state - owned large mines in the Liulin area also controlled production independently. The coking coal production of a large open - pit mine in Jiaokou stopped due to the expiration of the mining license. The开工 rate of 523 coking coal mines was 83.76%, a decrease of 1.02 percentage points, and the daily average clean coal output was 73.83 tons, a decrease of 2.01 tons [6]. - Demand: The molten iron output continued to decline this period, and the profit of the steel products end was in a larger loss. The short - term trend may remain weak. After the successful implementation of the coke price increase, the raw material market sentiment was optimistic, and most mines had sufficient pre - sales orders [6]. - Inventory: The clean coal inventory of the 523 - caliber steel union was 189.54 tons, a decrease of 15.87 tons. The price of imported Mongolian coal decreased slightly, with the price of Meng 5 raw coal dropping to about 1150 - 1170 yuan/ton [6]. Part 2: Coke Price - As of November 7, the CCI Rizhao quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke was reported at 1570 yuan/ton (-), the Rizhao Port quasi - first - grade coke warehouse receipt was 1715 yuan/ton (+11), and the port dry - quenched coke warehouse receipt was 1815 yuan/ton (+55). The price of the coke main contract fluctuated, down 1.15% from the previous trading week, and the J1 - 5 spread was -129.5 yuan/ton (+10) [44]. Fundamentals - Supply: Recently, affected by factors such as losses, environmental protection, maintenance, and tight coal resources, coke production has continued to shrink. After the third - round price increase was implemented, coke enterprises became more active in shipping. The capacity utilization rate of all - sample independent coke enterprises was 72.31%, a decrease of 1.13 percentage points, and the daily average output of all - sample independent coking plants was 63.59 tons, a decrease of 1 ton. The daily average output of 247 steel mill coking plants was 46.09 tons, a decrease of 0.12 tons [45]. - Demand: The molten iron output continued to decline this period, and the daily coke consumption decreased. The daily average molten iron output was 234.22 tons, a decrease of 2.14 tons [45]. - Inventory: The coke inventory of 247 steel mills was 633.16 tons, a decrease of 6.23 tons (1%). The coke inventory of all - sample independent coking plants was 58.3 tons, a decrease of 1.57 tons (2.6%). The coke inventory at ports was 202.11 tons, a decrease of 8.99 tons [45].