上证指数4000点附近整固

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The stability of the stock market is crucial for boosting consumer confidence and enhancing the internal circulation of the economy. Steady growth in the stock market can increase residents' wealth expectations, leading to more consumption and strengthening the internal driving force of the domestic cycle [8][15]. - The market is in a large - scale shock range, and the slow - bull trend remains the main feature. The Shanghai Composite Index has rebounded to around 4000 points, indicating market strength [15]. - In the context of declining export expectations and investment slowdown, consumption will be the main driving force for economic growth in the fourth quarter [41]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macroeconomic Policy - The 4th Plenary Session of the 20th CPC Central Committee emphasized seizing the high - ground of scientific and technological development, promoting high - quality development, expanding domestic demand, and steadily expanding institutional opening - up. It also focused on improving people's livelihoods and promoting green transformation [3][4][5]. Stock Market Analysis - The Shanghai Composite Index retested the top of the previous box this week and then rebounded to the 4000 - point level. The overall market is in a large - scale shock range, with a slow - bull trend. The structural migration of Chinese capital to stocks may have begun, driven by potential asset reallocation of trillions of dollars [10][15]. - The balance of margin trading in the two markets has remained stable at around 2.5 trillion yuan, and 2.93 million new A - share accounts were opened in September. In August, non - bank financial institutions had an increase of 1.18 trillion yuan in new RMB deposits, indicating a transfer of residents' savings to the stock market [17][20]. - The year - on - year growth rate of M1 reached 7.2% in September, indicating accelerated currency activation, which is beneficial for the upward movement of the stock market [23]. Economic Data - In September, the core CPI increased by 1.0% year - on - year, and the CPI for consumer goods increased by 0.3% month - on - month, showing signs of getting out of deflation [26]. - China's export value in September was 305.3 billion US dollars, with a year - on - year growth rate of - 1.1%, indicating an export slowdown. The export value of mechanical and electrical products was 190.3 billion US dollars, with a year - on - year growth rate of 1.2%, showing a significant slowdown [29][32]. - In September, the monthly value of manufacturing fixed - asset investment was 3.3 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year growth rate of - 1.9%, indicating an investment slowdown. The monthly value of infrastructure investment was 2.52 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year growth rate of - 7.9%, reflecting local fiscal difficulties [35][38]. - The total retail sales of consumer goods in September was 4.19 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year growth rate of 3.0%. Consumption will be the main driving force for economic growth in the fourth quarter [41]. International Market - After the US imposed reciprocal tariffs on various countries, the competitiveness of Chinese goods increased, and the US imports from China in August increased by nearly 40% month - on - month [44]. - The total retail and food sales in the US in August increased by 0.6% month - on - month, exceeding expectations, indicating strong consumer demand. The US capital goods imports in August were 91.9 billion US dollars, still at a high level, with a year - on - year growth rate of 10.5%, indicating an acceleration of the US "re - industrialization" [47][50]. Industry Trends - The AI competition has shifted from chip competition to power competition, leading to a significant increase in transformer exports and a record high for the grid equipment ETF [53]. - Driven by energy storage demand and anti - involution measures, the photovoltaic industry has reversed its decline, and the photovoltaic ETF has reached a record high [56]. - With large - scale AI infrastructure construction, the demand for energy storage batteries has soared, and the battery ETF has remained strong [58]. Trading Strategies - For index futures directional trading, the market is in a large - scale shock range, and long positions in CSI 300 index futures are the main allocation [15][60]. - For index options trading, when the index is in a large - scale shock range, it is advisable to observe rather than act on far - month deep - out - of - the - money call options [16][63].