PVC日报：震荡下行-20251107

Report Overview - The report is a PVC daily report from Guantong Futures, released on November 7, 2025, forecasting a weak and volatile trend for PVC in the near term [1] Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The PVC industry is facing challenges with increased supply, weak demand, and high inventory. The market is expected to be weak and volatile in the near term due to factors such as the increase in PVC production capacity, the slow recovery of the real - estate market, and the impact of international policies on exports [1] Market Analysis Supply - The upstream calcium carbide price in the northwest region stabilized after a decline at the beginning of the week. The PVC operating rate increased by 2.49 percentage points to 80.75% week - on - week, remaining at a relatively high level in recent years. New production capacities, including 500,000 tons/year of Wanhua Chemical, 400,000 tons/year of Tianjin Bohua, 200,000 tons/year of Qingdao Gulf, 300,000 tons/year of Gansu Yaowang, and 300,000 tons/year of Jiaxing Jiahua, have come into operation or are in the process of production [1][5] Demand - The real - estate market is still in the adjustment phase. From January to September 2025, real - estate investment, new construction, and completion areas decreased significantly year - on - year. The sales area and sales volume of commercial housing also declined. As of the week of November 2, the weekly transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities decreased by 0.83% week - on - week, remaining near the lowest level in recent years [1][6] Inventory - As of the week of November 6, PVC social inventory increased by 1.13% week - on - week to 1.0416 million tons, 26.42% higher than the same period last year. The social inventory is still relatively high [7] International Policy Impact - India postponed the BIS policy for another six months until December 24, 2025. Formosa Plastics in Taiwan, China, lowered its November quotation by $30 - 40 per ton. India announced an increase in anti - dumping duties on imported PVC from the Chinese mainland by about $50 per ton on August 14, weakening the export outlook for Chinese PVC in the fourth quarter. However, exports in September were still good, and export orders have not weakened significantly yet [1] Futures and Spot Market Futures - The PVC2601 contract decreased by 0.26% with an increase in positions, closing at 4,611 yuan/ton, below the 20 - day moving average. The trading range was between 4,610 yuan/ton and 4,638 yuan/ton, and the open interest increased by 23,646 lots to 1,338,957 lots [2] Basis - On November 7, the mainstream price of calcium carbide - based PVC in East China rose to 4,560 yuan/ton, and the futures closing price of the V2601 contract was 4,630 yuan/ton. The basis was - 51 yuan/ton, strengthening by 29 yuan/ton, and the basis was at a relatively low - neutral level [3][4]