宏观经济周报：经济基本面叙事回归-20251107

Economic Overview - The U.S. government shutdown has reached a historical record, with both parties claiming advantages in the ongoing negotiations[3] - In October, the ADP employment numbers exceeded expectations, but showed a significant slowdown compared to earlier in the year, facing risks from layoffs in large companies and the federal government[3] - The ISM Manufacturing PMI for October remained in contraction for the eighth consecutive month, indicating weak demand and supply, while the Services PMI reached an eight-month high, potentially boosting Q4 economic activity[3] Domestic Economic Conditions - China's manufacturing PMI fell in October, indicating a decline in both domestic and external demand, while the non-manufacturing PMI saw a slight recovery due to holiday and e-commerce promotions[3] - October exports contracted year-on-year due to high base effects and weakening overseas demand, with only automotive, shipbuilding, and integrated circuits showing positive contributions[3] - Domestic policies are actively addressing both long-term reforms and short-term growth targets, with fiscal policies aimed at accelerating effective investments[3] Commodity Prices and Market Trends - Downstream real estate transactions showed a slight recovery, while agricultural wholesale prices remained stable; midstream steel prices decreased while cement prices increased[3] - Upstream, coking coal and coke prices fluctuated, with non-ferrous metals and gold prices declining, and crude oil prices also showing a downward trend[3]