Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-11-07 10:32Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the freight index (European Line) futures prices showed mixed trends. The main contract EC2512 closed down 3.71%, and the far - month contracts had fluctuations ranging from - 1% to 1%. The latest SCFIS European Line settlement freight rate index was 1208.71, down 104 points from last week, a 7.9% week - on - week decline, indicating weakened freight rate support [6][40]. - Although the Sino - US economic and trade consultations in Kuala Lumpur achieved positive results and improved the market's expectations for the trade war situation, the positive impact has not yet reached China's demand side. China's manufacturing PMI data in October declined seasonally, and the new export order index dropped significantly. In October, China's exports decreased by 1.1% year - on - year, far lower than the expected 3%, reflecting that the recovery foundation of terminal transportation demand is not solid [6][40]. - Mainstream shipping companies have issued price increase notices for November, and Maersk's price - holding in mid - to - late October was basically successful, boosting market confidence in the November price increase [6][40]. - The Middle East situation, especially the Israel - Palestine conflict, is in a delicate and unstable stage, delaying the expected resumption of navigation in the Red Sea. The better - than - expected German economy has boosted market confidence and stimulated the economic recovery of the Eurozone. If the proposed fiscal expansion policy of the new German government has more specific details, it will enhance investors' confidence in the medium - term growth of the Eurozone [6][40]. - Overall, although the trade war situation has improved and there is a turning point in geopolitical conflicts, it has not affected the trade side yet. China's export performance in October was poor, and freight rates lack support. With the arrival of the peak shipping season in the fourth quarter, the demand side may pick up. The current freight rate market is greatly affected by news, and futures prices are expected to fluctuate more. Investors are advised to be cautious, pay attention to operation rhythm and risk control, and track geopolitical, shipping capacity, and cargo volume data in a timely manner [7][41] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - The main contract price of the freight index (European Line) futures declined slightly this week. The EC2512 contract's trading volume and open interest decreased, and the market trading was cold. The specific price and trading volume data of each contract are as follows: EC2512 closed at 1812.00, down 3.71%; EC2602 closed at 1592.00, up 0.52%; EC2604 closed at 1164.60, down 1.05%; EC2606 closed at 1376.10, down 1.28%; EC2608 closed at 1499.20, up 0.42%; EC2610 closed at 1133.40, down 0.18%. The SCFIS index closed at 1208.71, down 7.9% [9][10][13] 2. News Review and Analysis - Positive news: China announced specific measures to implement the consensus of the Sino - US economic and trade consultations in Kuala Lumpur, including canceling some tariffs on US - made goods and other measures [20]. - Negative news: The US federal government's "shutdown" has reached 36 days, which may reduce the fourth - quarter economic growth rate by up to 2 percentage points. If the deadlock continues until Thanksgiving week, about $14 billion in economic losses will be irreparable. Also, the US Treasury Secretary mentioned the possibility of imposing additional tariffs on China if China restricts rare - earth exports [20]. - Neutral news: A 2026 Federal Reserve voting member said that high inflation levels are not conducive to further interest - rate cuts, and the current reason for further policy action is not obvious [20] 3. Weekly Market Data - The basis of the freight index (European Line) futures contracts shrank, and the spread widened this week. The export container freight rate index declined. Global container shipping capacity continued to increase, while European Line shipping capacity decreased slightly under the guidance of shipping company blank sailings. The BDI and BPI declined due to geopolitical factors. The charter price of Panamax ships fluctuated at a high level, and the spread between the offshore and on - shore RMB against the US dollar narrowed [27][31][32] 4. Market Outlook and Strategy - The same as the core viewpoints of the report, including the price trends of futures contracts, the impact of economic and trade consultations, the fundamentals of demand, the price - increase expectations of shipping companies, the geopolitical situation, market expectations, and investment suggestions [40][41]