宏观数据观察：东海观察出口低于超预期，贸易顺差有所下降

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Views of the Report - In October 2025, China's export growth rate decreased year - on - year and was lower than market expectations due to the high base from last year's "rush to export", fewer working days, and a significant increase in export prices. However, with the consensus reached in the Sino - US economic and trade consultations in Kuala Lumpur and the recovery of demand in Europe and the United States, future exports are expected to remain resilient, supported by the growth of re - exports to ASEAN and countries along the Belt and Road, as well as new export growth drivers such as automobiles and integrated circuits [2][8][21] - The import growth rate in October was lower than expected mainly because of the significant decline or increased decline of high - tech products like integrated circuits and consumer goods such as medicine and cosmetics [2][26] - Currently, the overall recovery of external demand for goods and the weak but improving domestic demand have led to a continuous small decline in the domestic trade surplus, which remains at a high level. In the future, with the recovery of overseas demand, exports are expected to be supported. Meanwhile, imports are expected to maintain low - level growth due to weak domestic demand, and net exports will continue to support the economy in the short term [3][31] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. China's October Trade Volume Declined More than Expected - In October, the total trade volume (in US dollars) was $520.632 billion, a year - on - year decrease of 0.3% and a decline of 8.2% from the previous value. ASEAN was the top trading partner with a trade volume of $85.75 billion, a year - on - year increase of 4.5% and a trade share of 16.47%. The trade shares with ASEAN, the United States, and Japan increased, while those with the EU, South Korea, and Taiwan (China) decreased [6] 2. Export Growth Rate Declined More than Expected - In October, exports were $305.353 billion, a year - on - year decrease of 1.1%, lower than the expected 3.0% and a decline of 9.4% from the previous value. ASEAN was the top export destination with an export volume of $53.3 billion, a year - on - year increase of 10.96%. The decline in exports to the United States continued to narrow. With the consensus reached in the Sino - US economic and trade consultations in Kuala Lumpur, future exports are expected to remain resilient [8] - In terms of export structure, except for a significant increase in the export share to ASEAN, the export share to the United States slightly increased, while those to the EU, Latin America, and Africa slightly decreased. The key support for the resilience of exports this year is that Chinese enterprises are actively exploring non - US markets, and there is an investment - export trade cycle with non - US economies [9] - In terms of export commodities, mechanical and electrical products accounted for the largest export amount, with a share of 62.3% and a year - on - year increase of 1.2%. The fastest - growing commodities were refined oil, fertilizer, automobiles, and ships, which were the main drivers of export growth [15] 3. Imports Declined More than Expected - In October, imports were $215.279 billion, a year - on - year increase of 1.0%, lower than the expected 3.2% and a decline of 6.4% from the previous value. ASEAN was the top import source with an import volume of $32.5 billion, a year - on - year decrease of 4.62%. The decline in imports was mainly due to the significant decline or increased decline of high - tech products and consumer goods [22][26] - In terms of import products, mechanical and electrical products accounted for the largest import amount, with a share of 41.16% and a year - on - year increase of 2.5%. The decline in imports was mainly due to the narrowing decline in import prices, which led to a decrease in import quantity [25][27] 4. Trade Surplus was Lower than Expected - In October, the trade surplus was $90.07 billion, a year - on - year decrease of 5.9%, lower than the expected $95.6 billion. The trade surplus was mainly due to exports being significantly lower than expected [29]