成本端支撑，焦炭高位运行：煤焦日报-20251107

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Coke: As of the week ending November 7, the total daily coke output of all - sampled independent coking plants and steel - mill coking plants was 1.0968 million tons, a weekly decrease of 11,200 tons. On the demand side, the daily hot - metal output of 247 steel mills was 2.3422 million tons, a weekly decrease of 21,400 tons. The profitability rate of steel mills continued to decline by 5.19 percentage points to 39.83%, with over 60% of steel mills in a loss state, indicating continued demand pressure for coke. In terms of inventory, the coke inventory in each link of the industrial chain decreased this week. As of the latest data on November 7, the total coke inventory in the statistical scope was 8.8705 million tons, a weekly decrease of 129,700 tons. Overall, due to environmental protection restrictions and operational pressure, the supply and demand of coke are weak in the off - season, and the fundamentals lack effective support. The upward driving force mainly comes from coking coal on the cost side, supporting the main coke contract to oscillate at a high level. Attention should be paid to the subsequent changes in coking coal supply [6][35]. - Coking Coal: As of the week ending November 7, the daily output of clean coal from 523 coking coal mines nationwide was 738,000 tons, a decrease of 20,000 tons compared with the previous week and 47,000 tons compared with the same period last year. The total daily coke output of all - sampled independent coking plants and steel - mill coking plants was 1.0968 million tons, a weekly decrease of 11,200 tons. In terms of inventory, as of the week ending November 7, coking coal accumulated in the middle and upper reaches of the industrial chain and decreased in the downstream. Among them, the inventory of independent coking plants increased by 175,400 tons week - on - week, the port inventory increased by 141,200 tons week - on - week, and the coking coal inventory of 247 steel mills decreased by 90,200 tons week - on - week. Overall, the supply and demand of coking coal both decreased, and the fundamentals are neutral. The relative positive factor lies in the strong supply - side expectation brought by safety supervision and anti - involution. Attention should be paid to the subsequent production situation of coal mines in the main producing areas [7][36]. 3. Summary by Directory Industry News - In October, China imported 4.1737 million tons of coal and lignite, a decrease of 426,600 tons compared with the previous month, a month - on - month decrease of 9.3%. From January to October, the cumulative import of coal and lignite was 38.7623 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 11.0% [9]. - On November 7, the price of coking coal in the Tangshan market remained stable. The ex - factory price of prime coking clean coal was 1,615 yuan/ton, and that of fat coal was 1,600 yuan/ton, both including cash and tax [10]. Spot Market | Variety | Current Value | Weekly Change | Monthly Change | Annual Change | Year - on - Year Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Coke (Rizhao Port, quasi - first - grade, FOB) | 1,620 | +3.18% | +3.18% | - 4.14% | - 14.29% | | Coke (Qingdao Port, quasi - first - grade, ex - warehouse) | 1,570 | +0.64% | +1.29% | - 3.09% | - 11.30% | | Coking Coal (Ganqimaodu Port, Mongolian coal) | 1,435 | +3.24% | +3.24% | +21.61% | +0.35% | | Coking Coal (Jingtang Port, Australian coal) | 1,670 | +0.60% | +0.60% | +12.08% | - 3.47% | | Coking Coal (Jingtang Port, Shanxi coal) | 1,800 | +3.45% | +3.45% | +17.65% | +5.88% | [11] Futures Market | Futures | Active Contract | Closing Price | Change Rate | Highest Price | Lowest Price | Trading Volume | Volume Difference | Open Interest | Open Interest Difference | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Coke | - | 1,756.5 | - 0.62 | 1,786.0 | 1,750.0 | 17,198 | - 1,212 | 37,429 | - 771 | | Coking Coal | - | 1,270.0 | - 0.97 | 1,294.5 | 1,261.0 | 829,948 | - 85,901 | 638,430 | - 36,173 | [15] Related Charts The report provides multiple charts related to coke inventory, coking coal inventory, domestic steel mill production, Shanghai terminal wire and screw procurement, coal washing plant production, and coking plant operation, which visually show the historical data trends of relevant indicators [16][18][28]. Market Outlook The views on coke and coking coal are consistent with the core views, emphasizing the weak supply - demand situation of coke in the off - season and the supply - demand double - decline and neutral fundamentals of coking coal, and suggesting attention to the supply changes of coking coal and the production situation of main - producing - area coal mines [35][36].