铁铁铁铁研究报告：困境如何反转

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the overall industry investment rating 2. Core Views Manganese Silicon - The overall view is neutral. This week, the market oscillated and consolidated. The weekly output of ferromanganese silicon decreased slightly, and demand declined marginally. The fluctuations in both the futures and spot markets were small recently. With high production costs, it's difficult for steel mills to purchase at low prices. The price in the northern market is 5550 - 5600 yuan/ton, and 5580 - 5620 yuan/ton in the southern market. A large steel mill in Hebei tendered at 5820 yuan/ton. The manganese ore market is firm, and the alloy profit is poor [3]. Ferrosilicon - The overall view is neutral. This week, the market oscillated upwards. The ferrosilicon market was stable, mainly fulfilling orders. The ex - factory price of 72 - grade ferrosilicon natural lumps in the main production areas is 5150 - 5250 yuan/ton, and 75 - grade ferrosilicon is reported at 5700 yuan/ton. Hebei Steel priced it at 5660 yuan/ton. Production increased slightly, steel mill demand declined marginally, and metal magnesium production increased slightly. The current profitability in the main production areas is poor, and overall costs have risen [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Manganese Silicon Manganese Ore Inventory - The total port inventory of manganese ore is 431.4 tons, with a slight de - stocking compared to the previous period. Tianjin Port's inventory increased slightly to 383.9 tons, still significantly lower than the same period last year. Qinzhou Port's inventory decreased slightly to 47 tons, at a historically low level in recent years [15]. - In Tianjin Port, the inventory of South African ore is 263.9 tons with a slight de - stocking, Gabonese ore is 29 tons with a marginal de - stocking and far lower than last year, and Australian ore is 44.6 tons with a slight de - stocking, slightly higher than last year [19]. Manganese Ore Port Price - The price of Gabonese lumps in Tianjin Port is 40 yuan/ton - degree, Australian lumps are 38.8 yuan/ton - degree, and South African semi - carbonate is 34.2 yuan/ton - degree. The supply - demand game in the manganese ore market has intensified, quotes remain firm, and transactions are adjusted within a narrow range [22]. Manganese Silicon Production - As of November 7, the weekly output of ferromanganese silicon decreased to 20.19 tons. The daily average output in Inner Mongolia decreased to 13850 tons/day, remained stable at 6785 tons/day in Ningxia, decreased significantly to 1410 tons/day in Yunnan, decreased slightly to 2300 tons/day in Guizhou, and decreased slightly to 1535 tons/day in Guangxi [32]. Manganese Silicon Demand - As of November 7, the weekly demand of Mysteel sample enterprises is 12.11 tons. The weekly production of the five major steel products decreased to 856.74 tons. The proportion of rebar in the five major steel products in Mysteel sample data decreased slightly, slightly lower than the historical average [41]. Manganese Silicon Price - The price in the Inner Mongolia market is around 5620 yuan/ton, and 5680 yuan/ton in Tianjin. Hebei Steel's tender price is 5820 yuan/ton [54]. Chemical Coke Price - As of November 6, the chemical coke price remained stable. The ex - factory prices of 25 - 40mm coke in Yinchuan, Ordos, and Alxa are 1240, 1160, and 1190 yuan/ton respectively. The third round of coke price increase has been implemented, and the market is watching for the fourth round [57]. Manganese Silicon Production Profit - The immediate profit of ferromanganese silicon is low, and the north - south differentiation has intensified [61]. Manganese Silicon Month - to - Month Spread - As of November 6, the 1 - 5 month - to - month spread of ferromanganese silicon is - 50 yuan/ton, oscillating at a low level [66]. Manganese Silicon Basis and Warehouse Receipts - The market oscillated and consolidated, and the basis did not change significantly. As of November 6, the total of warehouse receipts and valid forecasts of ferromanganese silicon is 8.03 tons. Attention should be paid to the subsequent recovery [70]. Ferrosilicon Ferrosilicon Weekly Production - As of November 7, the weekly supply increased slightly to 11.41 tons. The daily average output in Inner Mongolia is 5260 tons, 2315 tons in Qinghai, 4250 tons in Ningxia, and 2630 tons in Shaanxi [78][79]. Ferrosilicon Demand - Steel Mills - The demand for ferrosilicon from steel mills decreased slightly. The total consumption of ferrosilicon by Mysteel sample steel mills is 1.98 tons, lower than the same period last year [83]. Ferrosilicon Demand - Metal Magnesium - As of November 6, the export price of metal magnesium at Tianjin Port is 2345 US dollars/ton, and the market price is 16250 yuan/ton, showing a slight increase. The weekly production of metal magnesium is 18410 tons, continuing to increase slightly. Due to rising coal prices, the cost of magnesium plants has increased. Most factories in Fugu have suspended quotes, waiting and watching the market. Factories have a strong willingness to raise prices, and the supply - demand game is obvious. The short - term market is expected to remain strong and stable [91]. Ferrosilicon Export - As of November 7, the overseas FOB price of 75 - grade ferrosilicon is 1100 US dollars/ton, and 1045 US dollars/ton for 72 - grade ferrosilicon, showing a slight decline. In September, the import volume of ferrosilicon increased slightly month - on - month, and the export volume increased significantly, higher than the same period last year [96]. Ferrosilicon Raw Materials - As of November 7, the quotes of small - sized blue charcoal in the mainstream regions increased slightly month - on - month. The current prices are 820 yuan/ton in Shaanxi, 810 yuan/ton in Ningxia, and 800 yuan/ton in Inner Mongolia. The price of oxidized iron scale is 750 yuan/ton [107]. Ferrosilicon Production Profit - As of November 7, the point - to - point profit of ferrosilicon is in the red. The loss is relatively large in Shaanxi, and the loss in Qinghai has increased significantly. The production profits in Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, Shaanxi, and Qinghai are - 336, - 509, - 543, and - 547 yuan/ton respectively [119]. Ferrosilicon Month - to - Month Spread - As of November 6, the 1 - 5 month - to - month spread of ferrosilicon is - 64 yuan/ton, strengthening slightly compared to the previous period [122]. Ferrosilicon Basis and Warehouse Receipts - The market oscillated upwards, and the basis of ferrosilicon weakened slightly. As of November 6, the basis is - 366 yuan/ton. As of November 6, the total of warehouse receipts and valid forecasts of ferrosilicon is 4.72 tons. Attention should be paid to the recovery of warehouse receipts [126]. Balance Sheet Manganese Silicon - The total supply from June 2025 to May 2026 ranges from 83.6 to 98.8 tons, with production being the main component and imports remaining stable at 0.2 tons. The total demand ranges from 82.4 to 93.9 tons, mainly for steel consumption. There are periods of surplus and deficit, and the cumulative year - on - year growth rates of production and consumption show different trends [128]. Ferrosilicon - The total supply from June 2025 to May 2026 ranges from 45.0 to 51.0 tons, with production and imports contributing. The total demand ranges from 45.9 to 52.1 tons, including domestic consumption and exports. The consumption is mainly for crude steel and metal magnesium. There are also periods of surplus and deficit, and the cumulative year - on - year growth rates of production and consumption vary [129].