有色金属铝周度报告-20251107

Report Overview - The report is a weekly report on non-ferrous metals (aluminum) by New Era Futures Research, dated November 7, 2025 [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Views - In the short term, alumina is expected to run weakly and fluctuate, while Shanghai aluminum is expected to run strongly with fluctuations. In the long term, in the context of positive macro - sentiment, Shanghai aluminum is expected to run strongly with fluctuations, and alumina will run weakly and fluctuate before large - scale production cuts [17] Summary by Directory Aluminum Raw Material Supply - As of October 31, the port inventory of bauxite was 27.3584 million tons, a decrease of 359,300 tons from the previous week. As of the end of September, the bauxite inventory of alumina plants was 23.86 million tons, at a historical high [6] - Overseas bauxite supply is still sufficient, and with high inventory, the price of Guinea bauxite has declined recently, weakening cost support [16] Alumina Supply - As of November 7, the operating rate of alumina enterprises was 85.25%, slightly down from the previous week. The total inventory of alumina was 4.788 million tons, an increase of 56,000 tons from the previous week [9] - The domestic alumina operating capacity is at a high level, but the weekly output decreased by 4,000 tons to 1.735 million tons due to the reduction of the roasting furnace load rate of some enterprises. The supply - over - demand pressure of alumina still exists, and it is expected to continue to run weakly and fluctuate [16] Electrolytic Aluminum Supply - As of the end of October, the operating rate of the electrolytic aluminum industry was 98.24%, remaining at a high level. As of September, China's primary aluminum production was 3.644 million tons, imports were 246,800 tons, and inventory was 591,000 tons [12] - As of November 7, LME aluminum inventory was 548,400 tons, a decrease of 9,700 tons from the previous week; SHFE aluminum inventory was 113,300 tons, a decrease of 239 tons from the previous week; COMEX aluminum inventory was 6,675 tons, an increase of 25 tons from the previous week. Overall, electrolytic aluminum inventory showed a destocking trend this week [14] - The supply of electrolytic aluminum is basically stable. Due to environmental protection restrictions, high aluminum prices, and the end of the peak season, the terminal demand is expected to weaken, and the proportion of molten aluminum may decline. In the context of positive macro - sentiment, the demand support for electrolytic aluminum is weakened, but the supply is expected to be tight due to overseas production cuts, and it is expected to run strongly with fluctuations [16] Strategy Recommendation - Short - term: Alumina runs weakly and fluctuates; Shanghai aluminum runs strongly with fluctuations. - Medium - and long - term: Pay attention to the pace of US dollar interest rate cuts. In the context of positive macro - sentiment, Shanghai aluminum runs strongly with fluctuations; alumina runs weakly and fluctuates before large - scale production cuts [17]