三大油脂周度报告-20251107

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The prices of the three major domestic oils showed mixed trends this week. Palm oil prices declined, while soybean oil and rapeseed oil prices increased. Market sentiment is influenced by multiple factors such as policies, overseas supply, and demand [4][27]. - Different short - and long - term trends are expected for each oil. Palm oil may be weak in the short - term and rebound in the long - term; soybean oil will fluctuate widely in the short - term and its price center may move up in the long - term; rapeseed oil will be slightly strong in the short - term and maintain a wide - range oscillation in the long - term [30][35][38]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Domestic Three Major Oil Spot Price Trends - From October 31 to November 7, 2025, palm oil futures closed down 1.19%, with a spot price decline of 0.66%; soybean oil futures rose 0.69%, with a spot price increase of 0.60%; rapeseed oil futures rose 1.18%, with a spot price increase of 1.42% [4]. 3.2 Three Major Oil Basis Changes - As of November 6, 2025, the basis of soybean oil, rapeseed oil, and palm oil was 184 yuan/ton (unchanged from the previous week), 317 yuan/ton (an increase of 3 yuan/ton from the previous week), and 28 yuan/ton (an increase of 6 yuan/ton from the previous week) respectively. As of November 7, 2025, the YP spread was - 476 yuan/ton (an increase of 160 yuan/ton from the previous week) [7]. 3.3 Domestic Three Major Oil Inventory Trends - As of October 31, 2025, the coastal rapeseed oil inventory decreased to 3.80 tons; the commercial inventory of palm oil mills decreased to 59.28 tons; the national soybean oil inventory of oil mills decreased to 121.58 tons. The total inventory of the three major oils decreased to 184.66 tons [10]. 3.4 Supply - side Analysis 3.4.1 Palm Oil Supply - As of November 6, 2025, the import cost of 24 - degree palm oil was 8973 yuan/ton (a decrease of 101 yuan/ton from the previous week), and the import gross profit was - 281 yuan/ton (an increase of 57 yuan/ton from the previous week). From November 1 - 5, the palm oil production in Malaysia increased by 6.80% month - on - month [13]. 3.4.2 Soybean Oil Supply - As of October 31, 2025, the national port soybean inventory was 962.90 tons (a decrease of 10.2 tons from the previous week), the soybean inventory of major national oil mills was 710.79 tons (a decrease of 40.4 tons from the previous week), and the oil mill operating rate was 54% (a decrease of 7% from the previous week). As of November 6, 2025, the soybean crushing profit was - 550.35 yuan/ton (an increase of 54.55 yuan/ton from the previous week) [18]. 3.4.3 Rapeseed Oil Supply - As of October 31, 2025, the total rapeseed inventory of oil mills was 1 ton (a decrease of 1 ton from the previous week). As of November 7, 2025, the import rapeseed crushing profit was - 2346.20 yuan/ton (an increase of 244 yuan/ton from the previous week) [23]. 3.5 Demand - side Analysis - On November 6, 2025, the trading volume of major palm oil mills was 0 tons, the trading volume of first - grade soybean oil was 29,800 tons, and the POGO spread was 321.99 dollars/ton (a decrease of 46.5 dollars/ton from the previous week). The predicted annual total consumption of rapeseed oil is 805 tons [26]. 3.6 Three Major Oil Fundamental Analysis - Policy: The market is waiting for the further clarification of the US biodiesel policy, the overall situation of China - US trade negotiations is positive, and the progress of China - Canada trade relations is being watched. - Overseas: Due to the US government shutdown, the USDA supply - demand report was not released. The US soybean harvest progress is accelerating, and the market supply pressure is emerging. The October palm oil production in Malaysia increased by 12.31% month - on - month to 2.07 million tons, and the inventory is expected to continue to accumulate. - Import and crushing: The oil mill operating rate decreased by 7% from the previous week, and the soybean and rapeseed inventories decreased. - Inventory: As of October 31, the inventories of the three major oils all decreased. - Spot: The spot prices of oils showed mixed trends this week [27]. 3.7 Strategy Recommendations 3.7.1 Palm Oil - Short - term: Weak operation, pay attention to market volatility risks after the release of the MPOB report next week. - Long - term: After bottom - hunting in oscillation, the futures price is expected to stabilize and rebound [29][30]. 3.7.2 Soybean Oil - Short - term: Wide - range oscillation, waiting for the details of China's soybean purchases from the US. - Long - term: The price center is expected to move up, but the upward space and rhythm will be affected by multiple factors [34][35]. 3.7.3 Rapeseed Oil - Short - term: Slightly strong oscillation. - Long - term: Maintain a wide - range oscillation pattern under the tight supply - demand balance [37][38].