原油周度报告-20251107

Report Summary Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - This week, crude oil showed a volatile and weakening trend. Geopolitical risk premiums declined, and demand entered the off - season. The expected supply surplus strengthened, suppressing prices. In the future, factors affecting crude oil will remain mixed. Weak fundamentals will exert long - term pressure on oil prices, but cost support, demand uncertainty, and geopolitical factors will provide support and increase price volatility. Oil prices are expected to continue wide - range fluctuations [8]. - It is recommended to focus on the WTI crude oil price range of $59 - 63 per barrel [9][53]. Summary by Directory 1. Report Abstract - Market Focus: Tensions between the US and Venezuela have intensified, with the US increasing military deployments in the Caribbean. The US EIA weekly crude oil inventory has significantly increased. OPEC+ will increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in December and suspend the production increase plan in the first quarter of next year [7]. - Key Data: For the week ending October 31, the US EIA crude oil inventory was 5.202 million barrels (expected 603,000 barrels, previous value - 6.858 million barrels); the EIA Cushing crude oil inventory was 30,000 barrels (previous value 133,400 barrels); the EIA strategic petroleum reserve inventory was 49,800 barrels (previous value 53,300 barrels) [7]. - Main Ideas: Crude oil is in a volatile and weakening trend. Geopolitical risk premiums have declined, and demand has entered the off - season. The expected supply surplus is increasing, suppressing prices. In the future, factors affecting crude oil will remain mixed. Oil prices are expected to continue wide - range fluctuations [8]. - Trading Strategy: Focus on the WTI crude oil price range of $59 - 63 per barrel [9]. 2. Multi - empty Focus - Bullish Factors: Geopolitical disturbances [11]. - Bearish Factors: Consensus reached in China - US economic and trade consultations; weakening fundamentals [11]. 3. Macro Analysis - OPEC+ Production Plan: OPEC+ will increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in December and suspend production increases in the first quarter of 2026. This can relieve short - term supply pressure but does not change the long - term supply increase situation [12]. - Geopolitical Situation: Tensions in the Gaza Strip, the ongoing Russia - Ukraine conflict, and intensified US - Venezuela relations bring uncertainties. Geopolitical factors have not caused substantial losses to global crude oil supply but will increase price volatility [13]. - Fed's Interest Rate Decision: There is a divergence among Fed officials on a December interest rate cut. The probability of a 25 - basis - point cut in December is 67.3%, and the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 32.7% [16]. - Manufacturing PMI: The US October ISM manufacturing PMI was 48.7, lower than the expected 49.5, indicating a downturn in the manufacturing industry and easing inflation pressure [16]. 4. Data Analysis - Supply Side: As of the week ending October 31, US domestic crude oil production increased by 7,000 barrels per day to 1,365.1 million barrels per day, reaching a new high for the year. The number of US oil rigs remained flat at 414, expected to stay low this year [17][20]. - Demand Side: US refinery operating rates decreased, and European 16 - country refinery operating rates showed a downward trend. Chinese refinery operating rates were divided, with state - owned refineries experiencing a slight decline and independent refineries rising. Refinery profits in China decreased [23][29][36]. - Inventory: US EIA crude oil inventory may reach a turning point, and Cushing crude oil inventory increased while gasoline inventory decreased. US crude oil cracking spreads increased slightly [45][49][50]. 5. Future Outlook - The factors affecting crude oil will remain mixed. Weak fundamentals will suppress oil prices in the long term, but cost support, demand uncertainty, and geopolitical factors will provide support. Oil prices are expected to continue wide - range fluctuations, and it is recommended to focus on the WTI crude oil price range of $59 - 63 per barrel [53].