Report Summary - The report reviews the weekly situation of asphalt, covering macro - analysis, supply - demand analysis, and provides trading strategies and market outlooks [7][8] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - This week, the asphalt futures market showed a one - sided decline, hitting a new low for the year. It is expected to continue its weak trend due to the lack of positive drivers, with the downstream entering the off - season and the expectation of crude oil supply surplus [8][54] - The operation should avoid chasing short positions due to the large short - term decline. It is recommended to focus on the BU2601 contract in the range of 2950 - 3140 yuan/ton [8][54] Summary by Directory 01 Report Abstract - Market focus: Tensions between the US and Venezuela, a significant increase in US EIA crude oil inventory, and OPEC+ plans to increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in December and pause in Q1 2026 [7] - Key data: As of November 5, the domestic asphalt sample enterprise operating rate was 29.7%, down 1.8 percentage points; as of November 7, the weekly asphalt production was 532,000 tons, a decrease of 24,000 tons; the factory inventory was 641,000 tons, a decrease of 44,000 tons; the social inventory was 897,000 tons, a decrease of 40,000 tons [7] 02 Multi - Empty Focus - Bullish factors: Macro - improvement, geopolitical risks [11] - Bearish factors: Weakening demand, OPEC+ production increase [11] 03 Macro Analysis - OPEC+ production adjustment: Increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in December and pause in Q1 2026. It may relieve short - term supply pressure, but the long - term supply surplus expectation remains [12] - Geopolitical situation: The Gaza situation may heat up, the Russia - Ukraine conflict continues, and US - Venezuela relations are tense. Geopolitical uncertainties may cause oil price fluctuations [13] - Fed policy and economic data: There is a divergence on a December rate cut. The probability of a 25 - basis - point cut is 67.3%. The US October ISM manufacturing PMI was 48.7, lower than expected, indicating continued inflation pressure relief [16] 04 Supply - Demand Analysis - Supply: As of November 7, the weekly asphalt production was 532,000 tons, a decrease of 24,000 tons. The operating rate was 29.7% as of November 5, down 1.8 percentage points. Supply pressure is expected to decline [17][25] - Demand: As of November 7, the weekly asphalt shipment was 445,000 tons, a decrease of 24,000 tons. The modified asphalt capacity utilization rate was 10.42%, down 4.6 percentage points from last week. Demand is facing weakening pressure [26][29] - Inventory: As of November 7, the factory inventory was 641,000 tons, a decrease of 44,000 tons; as of October 24, the social inventory was 1,005,000 tons, a decrease of 46,000 tons [36][43] - Spread: As of November 7, the weekly asphalt processing dilution profit was - 593.2 yuan/ton, a decrease of 58.8 yuan/ton. The basis was 321 yuan/ton, and the asphalt - to - crude ratio was 53.09 as of November 5 [52] 05 Market Outlook - The market is expected to continue its weak trend due to the lack of positive drivers. Avoid chasing short positions. Focus on the BU2601 contract in the range of 2950 - 3140 yuan/ton [54]
沥青周度报告-20251107
Zhong Hang Qi Huo·2025-11-07 11:23