隔夜外围交易衰退，A股大盘重回4000：股指期货早报2025.11.7-20251107

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - Overnight, the non - official employment data in the US indicated a weakening job market, but Fed officials sent hawkish signals, leading the market to trade on the expectation of a US economic recession, with overnight risk assets falling [1][2]. - In the domestic A - share market, with a lack of significant positive news, the return of the technology sector drove the index back to 4000. The long - term technology mainline remains unchanged. The index is expected to fluctuate between 3900 - 4050, and may decline on Friday due to external market drag. The strategy is to maintain a dumbbell approach, being long on the Shanghai 50 and CSI 500. It's not advisable to overly bet on the technology sector in the short term [2]. Summary by Directory 1. Important Information - US private data showed that in October, non - farm employment decreased by 9100, Challenger job cuts increased by 175% year - on - year, and the unemployment rate was about 4.36%, a four - year high [4]. - Fed officials were cautious. Some opposed further rate cuts, while others expected a December rate cut. The estimated neutral interest rate in the US was around 1%. AI might impact certain industries' recruitment [4]. - Trump stated no new tariffs during the Supreme Court's tariff case, advocated for low - cost drug purchases, and planned a possible visit to India next year [4]. - The US House Speaker was less optimistic about resolving the government shutdown. China aimed to build Hainan Free Trade Port and issued the "Ecological Environment Monitoring Regulations" [4][5][6]. - A polysilicon restructuring "consortium" platform was being planned, and the Ministry of Commerce responded to issues related to Anshi Semiconductor, rare earths, and the China - EU Investment Agreement, and held a round - table meeting for foreign - funded enterprises [6][7][8]. 2. Futures Market Tracking - Performance: All major index futures contracts showed gains. For example, the Shanghai 50 index rose 1.22%, and its futures contracts IH2511, IH2512, etc., also had varying degrees of increase [10]. - Trading Volume and Open Interest: Overall trading volume and open interest decreased. For instance, the trading volume of the Shanghai 50 futures decreased by 1,639 lots, and the open interest decreased by 2,948 lots [11]. 3. Spot Market Tracking - Index Performance: Major A - share indexes rose. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.97% to 4,008, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.73%, and the ChiNext Index rose 1.84% [2][35]. - Sector Performance: Sectors such as non - ferrous metals, electronics, and communication led the gains, while media, social services, and beauty care led the losses [2]. - Market Style Impact: Different market styles had different impacts on major indexes. For example, the cyclical style had a significant positive impact on the CSI 500 index [36][37]. - Valuation: The valuations of major indexes and sectors were at different levels. For example, the current PE of the Shanghai Composite Index was 16.53, with a historical percentile of 92.56% [35]. 4. Liquidity Tracking - Central Bank Operations and Interest Rates: The document presented data on central bank open - market operations and Shibor interest rates, but specific numerical trends were not clearly described in text [52][53][54].