股指黄金周度报告-20251107

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - In October 2025, China's import growth rate declined and exports turned negative year-on-year, indicating that the foundation of China's economic recovery is not solid, domestic demand remains weak, and external demand is under increasing downward pressure. The export will face downward pressure in the future. The stock index should be cautiously viewed for short - term rebounds and the risk of a new decline should be watched out for. Gold may be under short - term pressure and has a risk of deep adjustment in the medium - long term [40]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Macroeconomic Data - In October 2025, China's imports increased by 1% year - on - year, with the growth rate dropping by 6.4 percentage points from the previous month, and exports decreased by 1.1% year - on - year, the first negative growth since March, reflecting weakening domestic demand and increasing downward pressure on external demand [3][4]. 2. Stock Index Fundamental Data - From January to September 2025, the profits of industrial enterprises above a designated size turned positive year - on - year, and the growth rate of finished product inventories rebounded. However, after removing the impact of the low base effect in the previous year, corporate profitability remained weak, and enterprises were still in the stage of active inventory reduction [16]. - The margin trading balance in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets rose slightly to 24725.92 billion yuan. The central bank conducted 495.8 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations this week, achieving a net withdrawal of 1572.2 billion yuan [18]. 3. Gold Fundamental Data - Many Fed officials made hawkish remarks, believing that the US economy is still robust, the inflation risk has not been eliminated, and caution is needed regarding future interest rate cuts. The yield of the 10 - year US Treasury bond has returned above the 4% mark [28]. - The warehouse receipts and inventory of Shanghai gold futures are slowing down, and the inventory of New York COMEX gold is continuously decreasing, reflecting a cooling of the market's bullish sentiment [39]. 4. Strategy Recommendations - Short - term: Due to the marginal weakening of domestic economic data, the stock index should be cautiously viewed for short - term rebounds. Fed officials' hawkish remarks have further dampened the market's expectation of another interest rate cut in December, and gold may continue to adjust after a short - term rebound [40]. - Medium - long term: The valuation of the stock index will still be dragged down by the decline in corporate profit growth at the molecular end, and the support at the denominator end mainly comes from the recovery of risk appetite. Gold has a risk of deep adjustment due to factors such as the cooling of the expectation of another Fed interest rate cut in December [40].