沥青日报：震荡下行-20251107

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core View of the Report - The asphalt market is experiencing a downward trend with fluctuating prices. Supply is expected to increase due to planned refinery restarts, while demand will gradually weaken. The market is digesting news such as Russian oil sanctions and OPEC+ production decisions, and the asphalt futures price is showing a weak and fluctuating trend [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Analysis - Supply: This week, the asphalt operating rate decreased by 1.8 percentage points to 31.5%, which is 3.5 percentage points higher than the same period last year and at a relatively low level in recent years. In November, the domestic asphalt production is expected to be 2.228 million tons, a decrease of 454,000 tons or 16.9% from the previous month, and a decrease of 274,000 tons or 11.0% year-on-year. Some refineries plan to restart production, which will increase asphalt output [1]. - Demand: This week, the operating rates of most downstream asphalt industries increased. The road asphalt operating rate increased by 1 percentage point to 34%, slightly exceeding the level of the same period last year, but it is restricted by funds and weather. Northern projects are rushing to work, and the market is actively shipping, but funds are still a constraint, and subsequent demand will gradually weaken. In the south, rainfall has increased, and there is more inquiry for low - priced goods [1]. - Inventory: As of the week of November 7, the inventory - to - sales ratio of asphalt refineries continued to decline slightly and remained at the lowest level in recent years [1][4]. - Crude Oil: The market is digesting the news of Russian oil sanctions. The meeting between the leaders of China and the United States basically met market expectations, and the relationship between the two countries has not changed fundamentally. OPEC+ decided to increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in December but suspend production increase in the first quarter of next year. Crude oil prices are fluctuating [1]. - Basis: The long - term low - price resources of refineries are being released intensively. Recently, the basis of asphalt in Shandong has dropped significantly from a high level and is currently at a neutral level. Spot prices are continuously following the decline [1]. 2. Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: Today, the asphalt futures 2601 contract fell 2.40% to 3048 yuan/ton, below the 5 - day moving average. The lowest price was 3038 yuan/ton, the highest was 3112 yuan/ton, and the open interest increased by 12,624 to 214,266 lots [2]. - Basis: The mainstream market price in Shandong has dropped to 3060 yuan/ton, and the basis of the asphalt 01 contract has risen to 12 yuan/ton, at a neutral level [3]. 3. Fundamental Tracking - Supply: Some refineries such as Zhonghua Quanzhou and Zhongyou Qinhuangdao have stopped asphalt production, and the asphalt operating rate has decreased by 1.8 percentage points to 31.5%, which is 3.5 percentage points higher than the same period last year and at a relatively low level in recent years [1][4]. - Investment Data: From January to September, the national highway construction investment decreased by 6.0% year - on - year, and the cumulative year - on - year growth rate slightly rebounded compared with January - August 2025 but was still negative. From January to September 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of the actual completed fixed - asset investment in road transportation was - 2.7%, a slight rebound from - 3.3% in January - August 2025 but still in a negative growth situation. From January to September 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment in infrastructure construction (excluding electricity) decreased from 2.0% in January - August 2025 to 1.1% [4]. - Social Financing: From January to September 2025, the social financing stock increased by 8.7% year - on - year, and the growth rate decreased by 0.1 percentage point compared with January - August. In September, the new social financing reached 3.53 trillion, but it was 233.5 billion less than the same period last year under a high base. Attention should be paid to the progress of forming physical workload [4]. - Inventory: As of the week of November 7, the inventory - to - sales ratio of asphalt refineries decreased by 1.2 percentage points to 14.1% compared with the week of October 31 and remained at the lowest level in recent years [4].