国债期货日报-20251107

Report Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating Core View - The report suggests paying attention to central bank policy operations, maintaining a mid - term optimistic view on the bond market, advising mid - term long positions to be held and empty positions to buy in batches on pullbacks [1][3] Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Disk Review - On Friday, Treasury bond futures oscillated downward and closed down across the board. The funding situation was loose, with DR001 around 1.33%. Open - market reverse repurchase was 14.17 billion yuan, with a net withdrawal of 91.34 billion yuan, of which 70 billion yuan of outright reverse repurchase had been renewed previously [1] 2. Important Information - China's exports denominated in US dollars decreased by 1.1% year - on - year in October, while imports increased by 1.0% year - on - year. China's foreign exchange reserves in October were 3.34334 trillion US dollars, a month - on - month increase of 468 million US dollars; the gold reserves were 74.09 million ounces, a month - on - month increase of 30,000 ounces [2] 3. Market Judgment - The decline of Treasury bond futures intensified in the late trading today, possibly related to the rumor of the announcement of the public - offering fee new regulations over the weekend. If the new regulations lead to accelerated selling by institutions, the central bank can conduct bond purchases to hedge, and the impact on the market is expected to be less than that in September. In October, the export growth rate turned negative, and the export growth rates of South Korea and Vietnam also declined. It is necessary to observe whether external demand is trending weaker [3] 4. Treasury Bond Futures Daily Data - For TS2512, the price was 102.472 on 2025 - 11 - 07, down 0.022 from the previous day, and the contract position increased by 344 hands. For TF2512, the price was 105.92, down 0.04, and the contract position decreased by 1984 hands. For T2512, the price was 108.475, down 0.07, and the contract position decreased by 837 hands. For TL2512, the price was 116.03, down 0.1, and the contract position decreased by 593 hands. There were also corresponding changes in the basis and trading volume of each contract [4]