塑料日报：震荡运行-20251107

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - It is expected that plastics will continue to show a weak and volatile trend in the near future. The supply has increased due to new capacity and rising plastic operating rates, while the downstream demand has declined as the off - peak season for packaging films and the less - than - expected peak season for agricultural films have led to reduced downstream operating rates and weak purchasing willingness. Also, the macro - policy of anti - involution and old device elimination to address over - capacity will impact subsequent market trends [1] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Analysis - On November 7, the number of maintenance devices changed little, and the plastic operating rate remained at around 89.5%, at a neutral level. The PE downstream operating rate decreased by 0.52 percentage points to 44.85% on a month - on - month basis. Although the agricultural film is in the peak season with increasing orders and stable raw material inventory, the packaging film orders decreased slightly, and the overall PE downstream operating rate is at a relatively low level in recent years. The petrochemical inventory is currently at a neutral level in recent years. The crude oil price fluctuated narrowly. New capacity came on - stream, and the plastic operating rate increased. The downstream purchasing willingness was insufficient, and traders were cautious about the future market [1] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: The plastic 2601 contract increased in position and fluctuated. It closed at 6802 yuan/ton, with a low of 6791 yuan/ton and a high of 6835 yuan/ton, below the 60 - day moving average, and a gain of 0.27%. The position increased by 7205 lots to 585377 lots [2] - Spot: Most PE spot markets declined, with price changes ranging from - 50 to + 0 yuan/ton. LLDPE was reported at 6740 - 7270 yuan/ton, LDPE at 8870 - 9730 yuan/ton, and HDPE at 7020 - 7990 yuan/ton [3] 3.3 Fundamental Tracking - Supply: On November 7, the number of maintenance devices changed little, and the plastic operating rate remained at around 89.5%, at a neutral level [1][4] - Demand: As of the week of November 7, the PE downstream operating rate decreased by 0.52 percentage points to 44.85% on a month - on - month basis. The agricultural film was in the peak season, but the overall PE downstream operating rate was at a relatively low level in recent years [1][4] - Inventory: On Friday, the petrochemical early - morning inventory decreased by 2.5 tons to 66.5 tons, 1 ton higher than the same period last year, and currently at a neutral level in recent years [4] - Raw Materials: The Brent crude oil 01 contract fell to 64 dollars/barrel, the Northeast Asian ethylene price remained flat at 730 dollars/ton on a month - on - month basis, and the Southeast Asian ethylene price remained flat at 740 dollars/ton on a month - on - month basis [4]