Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The main contract price of rebar oscillated, with a daily increase of 0.20%, and both trading volume and open interest decreased. In the current situation of weak supply and demand, the industrial contradictions remain unresolved, inventory reduction is limited, and steel prices continue to be under pressure. However, the cost still provides support. It is expected that the price will continue to oscillate and seek a bottom, and attention should be paid to the production situation of steel mills [5]. - The main contract price of hot - rolled coil plate oscillated weakly, with a daily decline of 0.34%, trading volume decreased while open interest remained stable. Currently, the industrial contradictions in the hot - rolled coil industry are accumulating due to weak supply and demand, and the coil price continues to be under pressure. But the cost side still provides support. It is expected that the price will continue to oscillate and seek a bottom, and the future breakthrough depends on the expansion of steel mills' production reduction efforts [5]. - The main contract price of iron ore declined weakly, with a daily decline of 1.87%, and both trading volume and open interest increased. Currently, the demand for iron ore continues to decline, the negative feedback of production reduction is intensifying, and the supply remains high. Under the situation of strong supply and weak demand, the fundamentals of iron ore are weak, inventory has increased significantly, and the ore price will still be under pressure and run weakly under the dominance of the real - world logic. Attention should be paid to the performance of steel products [5]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Industry Dynamics - According to the General Administration of Customs, in the first 10 months of 2025, China's total value of goods trade imports and exports was 37.31 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.6%. Exports were 22.12 trillion yuan, an increase of 6.2%, and imports were 15.19 trillion yuan, basically the same as the same period last year. In October, the total value of goods trade imports and exports was 3.7 trillion yuan, an increase of 0.1%. Exports were 2.17 trillion yuan, a decrease of 0.8%, and imports were 1.53 trillion yuan, an increase of 1.4%, which has increased for 5 consecutive months [7]. - The results of the new - issue Cailian Press "C50 Wind Direction Index" show that most market institutions expect that the liquidity gap in November may be around 2 trillion yuan, and the year - end funds are likely to remain stable and loose, with DR007 expected to fluctuate between 1.4% - 1.5%. Most institutions believe that the necessity of a reserve requirement ratio cut in the fourth quarter has decreased [8]. - In October 2025, China exported 978.2 tons of steel, a month - on - month decrease of 68.3 tons, a decline of 6.5%. From January to October, the cumulative steel exports were 9773.7 tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.6%. In October, China imported 50.3 tons of steel, a month - on - month decrease of 4.5 tons, a decline of 8.2%. From January to October, the cumulative steel imports were 504.1 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 11.9%. In October, China imported 11130.9 tons of iron ore and its concentrates, a month - on - month decrease of 501.7 tons, a decline of 4.3%. From January to October, the cumulative imports of iron ore and its concentrates were 102888.6 tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.7% [9]. Spot Market - The spot prices of rebar in Shanghai, Tianjin, and the national average were 3,160, 3,200, and 3,225 respectively. The spot prices of hot - rolled coil plates in Shanghai, Tianjin, and the national average were 3,260, 3,190, and 3,310 respectively. The price of Tangshan billet was 2,940, and the price of Zhangjiagang heavy scrap was 2,160. The coil - to - rebar price difference was 100, and the rebar - to - scrap price difference was 1,000 [10]. - The price of 61.5% PB powder at Shandong ports was 771, and the price of Tangshan iron concentrate powder was 803. The freight rates from Australia and Brazil were 10.21 and 23.38 respectively. The SGX swap price (current month) was 104.81, and the Platts Index (CFR, 62%) was 104.70 [10]. Futures Market - The closing price of the rebar futures active contract was 3,034, with a daily increase of 0.20%, the highest price was 3,045, the lowest price was 3,025, the trading volume was 800,946, a decrease of 83,794, and the open interest was 1,960,886, a decrease of 59,467 [14]. - The closing price of the hot - rolled coil plate futures active contract was 3,245, with a daily decline of 0.34%, the highest price was 3,268, the lowest price was 3,233, the trading volume was 395,124, a decrease of 66,913, and the open interest was 1,365,588, an increase of 240 [14]. - The closing price of the iron ore futures active contract was 760.5, with a daily decline of 1.87%, the highest price was 777.5, the lowest price was 757.0, the trading volume was 431,356, an increase of 171,751, and the open interest was 559,408, an increase of 21,913 [14]. Related Charts - The report provides charts on steel inventory (including rebar and hot - rolled coil plate inventory), iron ore inventory (including national 45 - port iron ore inventory, 247 steel mills' iron ore inventory, etc.), and steel mill production situation (including 247 sample steel mills' blast furnace operating rate and capacity utilization rate, 87 independent electric furnace operating rates, etc.) [16][21][29] Market Outlook - For rebar, both supply and demand have weakened. The weekly output of construction steel mills decreased by 4.05 tons, and the weekly apparent demand decreased by 13.66 tons. The price is expected to continue to oscillate and seek a bottom, and attention should be paid to the production situation of steel mills [38]. - For hot - rolled coil plate, both supply and demand are weakening. The weekly output decreased by 5.40 tons, and the weekly apparent demand decreased by 17.59 tons. The price is expected to continue to oscillate and seek a bottom, and the future breakthrough depends on the expansion of steel mills' production reduction efforts [38]. - For iron ore, the supply - demand pattern remains weak, and inventory has increased significantly. The terminal demand for ore continues to decline, and the supply pressure is relatively large. The ore price will still be under pressure and run weakly, and attention should be paid to the performance of steel products [39].
负反馈担忧发酵，钢矿强弱分化：钢材&铁矿石日报-20251107
Bao Cheng Qi Huo·2025-11-07 11:10