螺矿产业链周度报告-20251107

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overall, steel prices weakened this week due to the release of macro - sentiment and a weak supply - demand pattern in the steel market. Steel fundamentals are weak, and steel prices are expected to continue to fluctuate weakly. Iron ore prices also weakened, affected by macro - interference and concerns about the decline in hot metal production. The short - term iron ore price is also expected to fluctuate weakly [5][50][52]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Report Summary - Market focus includes tariff adjustments on US - imported goods, 2000 billion yuan of new special bond quotas for provincial investment, the US government shutdown, and the decline of China's manufacturing PMI in October. Key data shows a decrease in steel exports in October, a decline in daily steel production in late October, and a decrease in steel inventories. The main view is that steel and iron ore prices are expected to fluctuate weakly [5]. 3.2 Multi - and Short - Focus 3.2.1 Multi - and Short - Factors Analysis (Rebar) - Bullish factors: domestic policy expectations remain, and steel production has decreased. Bearish factors: the decline of Sino - US manufacturing PMI, the impact of short - term dollar liquidity risks on the market, weakening steel demand, limited reduction in rebar inventory, and the re - accumulation of hot - rolled coil inventory [8]. 3.2.2 Multi - and Short - Factors Analysis (Iron Ore) - Bullish factors: domestic policy expectations remain, and the weekly shipment has decreased. Bearish factors: the decline of Sino - US manufacturing PMI, the impact of short - term dollar liquidity risks on the market, the continuous decline of hot metal production, and the continuous accumulation of port inventory [9]. 3.3 Data Analysis 3.3.1 Macro - In October, China's manufacturing PMI was 49%, a 0.8 - percentage - point decline from the previous month. The production and new order indices also decreased. The US ISM manufacturing PMI in October was 48.7, contracting for the eighth consecutive month, while the service PMI rose to 52.4. The US government shutdown may reduce the Q4 economic growth rate by up to 2 percentage points, and about 14 billion US dollars of economic losses may be irreparable. The suspension of fiscal expenditure has frozen about 70 billion US dollars of funds, increasing the risk aversion in the market and pressuring industrial products [10][11]. 3.3.2 Terminal - In October, the average monthly working hours of China's construction machinery products decreased by 9.03% year - on - year, and the monthly startup rate was 55%, a 10.1 - percentage - point decline year - on - year. From January to June 2025, China's shipbuilding completion volume decreased by 3.5% year - on - year, and new orders decreased by 18.2% year - on - year, while the order backlog increased by 36.7% year - on - year [17]. 3.3.3 (Rebar) Spot - The spot price of rebar decreased, and the basis widened [18]. 3.3.4 Profit - This week, the profitability rate of steel mills decreased by 5.19 percentage points to 39.83% [20]. 3.3.5 Production - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills nationwide increased by 1.38 percentage points to 83.13%, while the electric furnace operating rate decreased by 1.8 percentage points to 67.03%. The output of five building materials was 856.74 (- 18.55) million tons, rebar output was 208.54 (- 4.05) million tons, and hot - rolled coil output was 318.16 (- 5.4) million tons. Some steel mills in Tangshan and Shanxi have planned production cuts [22][26]. 3.3.6 Apparent Demand - The apparent demand for five building materials was 866.91 (- 49.51) million tons, rebar apparent demand was 218.52 (- 13.67) million tons, and hot - rolled coil apparent demand was 314.3 (- 17.59) million tons. Thailand has launched an anti - circumvention investigation on Chinese hot - rolled steel [29]. 3.3.7 Inventory - The total inventory of five building materials was 1503.57 (- 10.17) million tons, rebar total inventory was 592.54 (- 9.98) million tons, and hot - rolled coil total inventory was 410.45 (+ 3.86) million tons. The reduction of rebar inventory was slow, and hot - rolled coil inventory re - accumulated [32]. 3.3.8 Spread - The hot - rolled coil to rebar spread slightly widened [33]. 3.3.9 (Iron Ore) Spot - The spot price of iron ore decreased, and the basis widened [35]. 3.3.10 Import and Shipment - In October, China imported 111.309 million tons of iron ore, a 4.3% month - on - month decrease. From October 27 to November 2, the global iron ore shipment was 32.138 million tons, a 1.745 - million - ton decrease from the previous week [39]. 3.3.11 Arrival - From October 27 to November 2, the arrival volume of 47 ports in China was 33.141 million tons, a 12.298 - million - ton increase from the previous week [40]. 3.3.12 Hot Metal Production - This week, the average daily hot metal production of 247 steel mills nationwide was 2.3422 million tons, a 21,400 - ton decrease from the previous week [42]. 3.3.13 Port Inventory - This week, the total inventory of imported iron ore at 45 ports was 148.98383 million tons, a 3.5635 - million - ton increase. The average daily port clearance volume was 3.2093 million tons, a 7700 - ton increase from the previous week [46]. 3.3.14 Steel Mill Consumption and Inventory - This week, the total inventory of imported iron ore in steel mills was 90.0994 million tons, a 1.6008 - million - ton increase. The daily consumption was 2.887 million tons, a 29,200 - ton decrease. The inventory - to - consumption ratio was 31.21 days, a 0.86 - day increase [48]. 3.4后市研判 - Steel prices are expected to continue to fluctuate weakly due to weak fundamentals. Iron ore prices are also expected to fluctuate weakly in the short - term due to weak supply - demand and accumulated port inventory [50][52].