原油日报：原油震荡运行-20251107

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Core View of the Report - The current situation of the crude oil market is one of supply surplus. Considering factors such as the increase in supply, the end of the consumption peak season, and geopolitical tensions, it is expected that crude oil prices will fluctuate in the near term [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - On November 2, OPEC+ eight countries decided to increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in December, and suspend production increases in Q1 2026. Saudi Aramco lowered the official selling prices of crude oil sold to Asia in December. The end of the crude oil demand peak season, combined with the increase in U.S. crude oil inventories and the decline in the ISM manufacturing index, has led to concerns about demand. However, due to the sanctions on Russian oil companies and the military stand - off between the U.S. and Venezuela, the export of Russian crude oil is expected to be restricted. The talks between Chinese and U.S. leaders were in line with market expectations, and the relationship between the two countries has not changed fundamentally [1] Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Today, the main crude oil futures contract 2512 rose 0.02% to 460.6 yuan/ton, with a minimum price of 452.9 yuan/ton, a maximum price of 461.5 yuan/ton, and the open interest decreased by 1,684 to 26,307 lots [2] Fundamental Tracking - EIA expects a global oil inventory increase of about 2.6 million barrels per day in Q4 2025, and has adjusted up the U.S. crude oil production in 2025 by 90,000 barrels per day to 13.53 million barrels per day. It has also adjusted up the average Brent crude oil price in 2025 from $67.80/barrel to $68.64/barrel, but expects the price to drop to $59/barrel in Q4 2025 and maintain the average price in 2026 at $51.43/barrel. OPEC has adjusted up the global oil demand growth rate in 2025 by 10,000 barrels per day to 1.3 million barrels per day and maintained the growth rate in 2026 at 1.38 million barrels per day. IEA has adjusted down the global oil demand growth rate in 2025 by 30,000 barrels per day to 710,000 barrels per day, maintained the growth rate in 2026 at 699,000 barrels per day, and adjusted up the global oil supply growth rate in 2025 by 300,000 barrels per day to 3 million barrels per day and in 2026 by 300,000 barrels per day to 2.4 million barrels per day, exacerbating the oil supply surplus [3] EIA Data - On the evening of November 5, U.S. EIA data showed that for the week ending October 31, U.S. crude oil inventories increased by 5.202 million barrels, gasoline inventories decreased by 4.729 million barrels, refined oil inventories decreased by 643,000 barrels, and Cushing crude oil inventories increased by 30,000 barrels. The EIA data indicated that the decline in gasoline inventories exceeded expectations, while the increase in U.S. crude oil inventories also exceeded expectations, resulting in a slight increase in overall oil product inventories [4] Supply and Demand Data - The OPEC latest monthly report showed that OPEC's crude oil production in August 2025 was adjusted down by 32,000 barrels per day to 27.916 million barrels per day, and its production in September increased by 524,000 barrels per day to 28.44 million barrels per day. U.S. crude oil production for the week ending October 31 increased by 7,000 barrels per day to 13.651 million barrels per day, reaching a new historical high. The four - week average supply of U.S. crude oil products decreased to 20.344 million barrels per day, a 2.20% decrease compared to the same period last year. Gasoline and diesel demand also decreased both weekly and on a four - week average basis [4][5]