贸易行业2025年度总结及展望

Investment Rating - The report maintains a stable outlook for the trade industry [3][52]. Core Insights - In the first three quarters of 2025, China's trade industry achieved "steady improvement" despite complex external conditions, with exports growing by 6.1% and trade surplus expanding [2][51]. - The structure of import and export products continues to optimize, with an increase in the share of electromechanical and high-tech products [51]. - Emerging markets, particularly countries involved in the Belt and Road Initiative and ASEAN, have become the main engines for export growth, leading to a diversification of export markets [2][12]. Industry Performance - In the first three quarters of 2025, China's total import and export value reached 46,841.89 billion USD, a year-on-year increase of 3.1% [5]. - Exports totaled 27,796.37 billion USD, up 6.1% year-on-year, while imports slightly decreased by 1.1% to 19,045.53 billion USD [5][6]. - The trade surplus for the first three quarters was 8,750.84 billion USD, an increase of 1,807.27 billion USD compared to the same period last year [6]. Trade Partners and Market Dynamics - China expanded its trade partnerships, becoming a top trading partner for 166 countries and regions, with ASEAN remaining the largest trading partner [11]. - In the first three quarters, trade with Belt and Road countries reached 17.37 trillion yuan, accounting for 51.7% of total trade, reflecting a 1.1 percentage point increase [12][13]. - The export of electromechanical products reached 12.07 trillion yuan, growing by 9.6% and constituting 60.5% of total exports [13]. Commodity Price Trends - International crude oil prices fluctuated between 60-80 USD per barrel, with a significant drop in early 2025 followed by stabilization [15][16]. - Steel prices showed a downward trend, with an overall decrease of 4.2% compared to 2024, influenced by weak demand in the real estate sector [17]. - Coal prices experienced a "U-shaped" trend, with a significant recovery in the third quarter due to supply-side policies [22]. Currency and Policy Analysis - The RMB/USD exchange rate showed a strong rebound, with the offshore RMB reaching 7.10 by the end of September, reflecting a 1.6% appreciation from the second quarter low [31]. - Trade policies in 2025 focused on origin management innovation, free trade zone construction, and foreign exchange facilitation to support stable foreign trade [34][36]. Future Outlook - The international environment is expected to improve, with domestic macro policies and the release of internal demand supporting the trade industry's stable development [52]. - The trade industry is projected to experience "stable foreign trade scale, increased domestic trade growth, and further optimization of structure" in 2026 [52].