菜籽类市场周报：贸易乐观情绪提振，菜粕期价明显上涨-20251107

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no relevant information provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - For Rapeseed Oil: The short - term strategy is to wait and see. The futures price of rapeseed oil fluctuated and closed higher this week. Although the supply of Canadian rapeseed is under pressure, the agreement between Canada and Pakistan on rapeseed export provides support. Domestically, the supply of imported rapeseed in the near - term is tight, and oil mills' rapeseed stocks are exhausted, leading to a de - stocking mode for rapeseed oil, which supports its price. However, the abundant supply of soybean oil and its good substitution advantage limit the demand for rapeseed oil to mainly rigid demand. The rapeseed oil futures price has recovered from its low level recently [7][8]. - For Rapeseed Meal: The short - term strategy is to participate on the long side. The futures price of rapeseed meal rose significantly this week. The optimistic sentiment in the US soybean trade boosts the price of US soybean futures, which is beneficial to the domestic meal market through cost transmission. Domestically, the import of Canadian rapeseed and rapeseed meal in the near - term is restricted, and the supply pressure is small. But the demand for rapeseed meal from aquaculture is weakening, and the abundant supply of soybeans and good substitution advantage of soybean meal weaken the demand expectation. The rapeseed meal market is in a situation of both weak supply and demand. Recently, the prices of both rapeseed meal and soybean meal have rebounded from their lows and strengthened in the short - term [10][11]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1. Week - to - Week Summary - Rapeseed Oil: The 01 contract closed at 9533 yuan/ton, up 111 yuan/ton from the previous week. The short - term strategy is to wait and see [7][8]. - Rapeseed Meal: The 01 contract closed at 2539 yuan/ton, up 151 yuan/ton from the previous week. The short - term strategy is to participate on the long side [10][11]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Market - Futures Price and Position: Rapeseed oil futures fluctuated slightly higher at a low level this week, with a total position of 210,490 lots, down 10,248 lots from last week. Rapeseed meal futures strengthened significantly, with a total position of 463,486 lots, up 120,043 lots from last week [16]. - Top 20 Net Positions: The top 20 net positions of rapeseed oil futures changed from net long to net short, with a net position of - 8654 this week compared to + 2459 last week. The top 20 net positions of rapeseed meal futures changed from net short to net long, with a net position of + 26405 this week compared to - 88865 last week [22]. - Futures Warehouse Receipts: The registered warehouse receipts of rapeseed oil are 5024 lots, and those of rapeseed meal are 2745 lots [29][30]. - Spot Price and Basis: The spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu is 9850 yuan/ton, slightly rising from last week, and the basis between the active contract futures price and the spot price is + 317 yuan/ton. The price of rapeseed meal in Nantong, Jiangsu is 2540 yuan/ton, continuing to rise from last week, and the basis between the spot price in Jiangsu and the active contract futures price is + 1 yuan/ton [37][43]. - Futures Inter - month Spread: The 1 - 5 spread of rapeseed oil is + 405 yuan/ton, at a medium level in the same period in recent years. The 1 - 5 spread of rapeseed meal is + 123 yuan/ton, at a medium - high level in the same period in recent years [48]. - Futures - Spot Ratio: The ratio of the 01 contract of rapeseed oil and rapeseed meal is 3.755, and the average spot price ratio is 3.75 [51]. - Price Spread between Rapeseed Oil and Other Oils/Meals: The 01 contract spread between rapeseed oil and soybean oil is 1349 yuan/ton, with little change this week. The 01 contract spread between rapeseed oil and palm oil is 873 yuan/ton, slightly widening this week. The 01 contract spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is 519 yuan/ton, and the spot spread as of Thursday is 510 yuan/ton [61][67]. 3.3. Industry Situation - Rapeseed Supply: As of October 31, 2025, the total inventory of rapeseed in oil mills is 10,000 tons. The estimated arrival volumes of rapeseed in October, November, and December 2025 are 65,000 tons, 10,000 tons, and 620,000 tons respectively. As of November 6, the spot crushing profit of imported rapeseed is + 1145 yuan/ton. As of the 44th week of 2025, the crushing volume of rapeseed in major coastal oil mills is 6000 tons, up 2000 tons from last week, and the weekly startup rate is 1.47%. In September 2025, the total import volume of rapeseed is 115,300 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 691,600 tons (85.71%) and a month - on - month decrease of 131,400 tons [73][77][85]. - Rapeseed Oil Supply and Demand: As of the 44th week of 2025, the inventory of imported and crushed rapeseed oil is 573,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 28,000 tons (4.72%). In September 2025, the total import volume of rapeseed oil is 156,600 tons, a year - on - year increase of 10,200 tons (6.99%) and a month - on - month increase of 19,000 tons. As of September 30, 2025, the monthly output of edible vegetable oil is 4.95 million tons, and the monthly catering revenue is 450.86 billion yuan. As of the 44th week of 2025, the contract volume of imported and crushed rapeseed oil is 45,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 10,000 tons (27.30%) [89][93][97]. - Rapeseed Meal Supply and Demand: As of the 44th week of 2025, the inventory of imported and crushed rapeseed meal is 7000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1000 tons (6.67%). In September 2025, the total import volume of rapeseed meal is 157,700 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 64,700 tons (29.08%) and a month - on - month decrease of 55,700 tons. As of September 30, 2025, the monthly output of feed is 3.1287 million tons [101][105][109]. 3.4. Options Market Analysis - As of November 7, the implied volatility of rapeseed meal options is 21.1%, a decrease of 1.03% from 22.13% last week, and it is slightly lower than the 20 - day, 40 - day, and 60 - day historical volatility of the underlying asset [114].