铝产业链周度报告-20251107

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. Core Viewpoints - The aluminum market presents a complex situation with both bullish and bearish factors. Bullish factors include relatively limited domestic supply increase, tight overseas supply - demand, and certain social inventory of aluminum ingots. Bearish factors are short - term macro concerns, weakening alumina prices, and overall weak downstream consumption due to high aluminum prices [8]. - The supply of domestic bauxite is expected to recover significantly after the end of the rainy season, while the import volume of bauxite may gradually increase as the rainy season in Guinea ends [14][18]. - The supply over - capacity expectation of alumina remains unchanged, and attention should be paid to unexpected disturbances on the supply side. The production of electrolytic aluminum increased in October, and the industry's profit expanded due to cost reduction and a slight increase in aluminum prices. However, high aluminum prices have suppressed downstream consumption, leading to a slight decline in the aluminum processing start - up rate [21][25][28]. - The real estate market is in a weak state with declines in construction area, new - start area, and sales volume. In contrast, the new energy vehicle industry maintains high prosperity, which may drive the demand for aluminum [33][37]. - The inventory situation is mixed, with foreign inventory rising and domestic inventory falling. The social inventory of aluminum ingots is still at a relatively low level, providing some support for aluminum prices [40][44]. - The price of recycled aluminum is expected to be strongly volatile in the short term, and the supply of aluminum alloy is expected to decrease, with the price following the upward trend of aluminum [60][61]. Summary by Directory Report Summary - Bullish factors for aluminum include limited domestic supply increase, social inventory of aluminum ingots, and tight overseas supply - demand. Bearish factors are short - term macro concerns and weakening alumina prices [8]. - Data has dampened the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations, and the US dollar index has rebounded [9]. - The supply of domestic bauxite is currently tight but is expected to recover significantly after the end of the rainy season. The import volume of bauxite decreased in September due to the rainy season in Guinea and may gradually increase later [14][18]. Data Analysis - In September, China's alumina production was 7.746 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.7% and a year - on - year increase of 12.7%. From January to September, the cumulative production was 66.836 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 9.8% [23]. - In October, the production of domestic electrolytic aluminum increased year - on - year by 1.13% and month - on - month by 3.52%. The proportion of aluminum water in the industry increased by 1.4 percentage points to 77.7% [25]. - In September, the weighted average full cost of China's electrolytic aluminum industry was 15,918 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 193 yuan/ton. The theoretical profit of the industry reached 4,849 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 301 yuan/ton [28]. - The start - up rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing enterprises was 61.6%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.6 percentage points [30]. - From January to September, the real estate market showed a decline in construction area, new - start area, and sales volume. In contrast, the new energy vehicle industry maintained high prosperity, with production and sales increasing significantly [34][38]. - The inventory of LME aluminum increased to a nearly eight - month high, while the inventory of SHFE aluminum decreased to a two - and - a - half - month low. The social inventory of aluminum ingots decreased during the week and is still at a relatively low level [41][44]. - On November 6, the domestic spot premium and LME aluminum premium both widened [46]. - In September, the production of recycled aluminum alloy increased, but it is expected to decrease slightly in October due to the shortage of scrap aluminum. The start - up rate of the recycled aluminum alloy industry increased in October, but there is significant differentiation within the industry [49][52]. - In September, the import of unforged aluminum alloy decreased year - on - year by 13.2%. The import volume in October is expected to increase slightly but be lower than the same period last year [55]. 后市研判 - The supply of aluminum alloy is expected to decrease, and as the automotive industry is still in the sales - boosting stage, the demand during the peak season is still expected. The price of aluminum alloy will follow the upward trend of aluminum [61].