铜产业链周度报告-20251107

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The concerns about tight copper supply continue to provide support for copper prices, but the upward driving force of copper futures prices has weakened. It is recommended to establish long positions around 85,000 after the macro - economy stabilizes [14][16][47]. - The copper market is affected by both bullish and bearish factors. Bullish factors include low inventory and tight supply at the mine end, while bearish factors include weak macro - economic sentiment, insufficient actual demand, and the strengthening of the US dollar [7]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Report Summary - The US economic data affects the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations, and the US government shutdown may impact the economy. The copper market has both bullish factors such as tight mine supply and bearish factors like weak demand [9][11][7]. - China's copper imports, production, and demand show different trends. For example, copper concentrate imports have changes, and the production of some copper products is affected by factors such as maintenance and policies [16][21]. 3.2 Multi - empty Focus - Bullish Factors: Low inventory and tight operation at the mine end, and the TC of copper concentrate remains at a low level, providing support for copper prices [7][14][17]. - Bearish Factors: Weak macro - economic sentiment, insufficient actual demand, and the strengthening of the US dollar due to the cooling of the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations [7][8][11]. 3.3 Data Analysis - Supply - side Data - China's September copper concentrate imports were 2.5869 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 6.24% and a year - on - year increase of 6.43%. The supply from Chile decreased significantly, while that from Peru slightly increased [16]. - As of the week ending October 31, the weekly index of Mysteel standard clean copper concentrate TC was - 42.45 dollars per dry ton, a decrease of 0.79 dollars per dry ton from the previous week [18]. - In September 2025, China's electrolytic copper actual output was 1.1498 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.2% and a year - on - year increase of 14.48%. The output in October continued to decline due to factors such as smelter maintenance [21]. - Demand - side Data - China's September scrap copper imports were 184,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.6% and a year - on - year increase of 14.8% [25]. - In September 2025, the domestic copper strip production was 196,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.35%, ending four consecutive months of decline, but still lower than the same period last year [28]. - In September 2025, the domestic refined copper rod production was 849,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.18%, and the recycled copper rod production was 170,800 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.04% [31]. - The real estate market is weak, with indicators such as construction area, new construction area, and sales area showing year - on - year declines [36][38]. - The new energy vehicle industry maintains a strong momentum. In September, the production and sales of new energy vehicles were 1.617 million and 1.604 million respectively, with significant year - on - year and month - on - month increases [40]. - Inventory and Premium Data - London Metal Exchange copper inventory increased last week, Shanghai Futures Exchange copper inventory increased in the week ending October 31, and domestic electrolytic copper spot inventory decreased from November 3 to 6 [43]. - On November 6, the Shanghai Wumaotrade 1 copper spot changed from a discount to a premium of about 35 yuan per ton, and the LME 0 - 3 spot discount widened to about - 30.96 dollars per ton [45]. 3.4 Market Outlook The upward driving force of copper futures prices has weakened. It is recommended to establish long positions around 85,000 after the macro - economy stabilizes [47].