10月外贸数据点评：不用对出口过于悲观

Export Performance - October exports decreased by 1.1% year-on-year, significantly below the expected 3% growth, primarily due to a high base effect from the previous year and weaker seasonal performance[3][8]. - The average two-year growth rate for exports slightly increased to 5.5% compared to the previous month, indicating some resilience despite the monthly decline[3][8]. - Exports to Africa and the EU showed significant weakness, with exports to Africa dropping by 20.8% month-on-month and 10.5% year-on-year[3][8]. Trade Dynamics - Exports to the US improved, with October exports amounting to $34.92 billion, a year-on-year decline of 25.2%, but the drag on overall exports decreased by 0.39 percentage points compared to the previous month[3][8]. - Exports to the EU fell to $43.89 billion, with a month-on-month decrease of 8.6% and a year-on-year growth rate of only 0.9%[3][8]. - Exports to ASEAN remained resilient at $53.29 billion, with a year-on-year growth rate of 11%[3][8]. Product Categories - Machinery and electrical products significantly dragged down overall exports, contributing a negative impact of 2.36% to total exports, while high-tech products contributed positively with 0.47%[3][8]. - Labor-intensive products saw a sharp decline, with a year-on-year growth rate of -14.8%[3][8]. Import Trends - Imports grew by only 1% year-on-year, below the expected 3.2%, and decreased by 9.6% month-on-month, indicating a weaker performance compared to exports[3][8]. - Major commodity imports showed mixed results, with iron ore and copper imports declining, while soybean and crude oil imports saw a rebound in growth rates[3][8]. Future Outlook - The easing of US-China trade tensions is expected to support export resilience, with recent agreements potentially reducing tariffs on Chinese goods[3][8]. - The ongoing interest rate cuts globally may stimulate demand in key trading partner countries, further supporting China's export growth in the future[3][8].