纸浆产业周报：相对偏强运行，但需注意高位回落风险-20251107

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - Next week, the pulp futures price will fluctuate with a slightly upward trend, but there are still certain limitations above [3]. - In the long - term, the impact of Buzhen warehouse receipts will decrease to some extent, but there will still be Buzhen warehouse receipts registered this year available for delivery in 2026. The strengthening expectation of continuous interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve is bullish for commodities. The instability of the US trade war and tariff policies may cause Brazilian pulp exports to the US to be affected and flow to the Chinese market, creating greater supply pressure, but this has not been seen yet. Under China's anti - involution strategy, positive factors may emerge from the policy side at any time [5]. Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 1.1 Core Contradictions - The core influencing factors this week are macro - sentiment and the implementation of paper mills' price - holding strategies. The continuation of import tariffs on US pulp and the increase in the average spot price of imported wood pulp are positive for the pulp futures price. The partial implementation of paper mills' price - holding strategies also brings some positive effects, but the actual implementation effect is limited, restricting the increase of the futures price [1]. - From the fundamental perspective, China's port inventory decreased by 53,000 tons, and attention should be paid to the bullish impact on the futures price when it falls below 2 million tons. On the supply side, the resumption of production by some enterprises and the increase in the operating load rates of bamboo pulp, hardwood pulp, and chemimechanical pulp bring certain pressure [1]. - In terms of terminal demand, there is a slight improvement. The operating rates of downstream papermaking enterprises generally increased, and downstream demand has recovered [2]. 1.2 Trading - type Strategy Recommendations No specific content provided in the report. 1.3 Industrial Customer Operation Recommendations - For enterprises with high inventories of finished products (softwood pulp/offset paper) worried about price drops, they can short pulp/offset printing paper futures (SP2601, OP2601) to lock in profits and make up for production costs, with a hedging ratio of 25%. They can also sell call options (SP2601C5300, OP2601C4400) to collect premiums and reduce costs, with a hedging ratio of 25% [8]. - For papermaking enterprises with low inventories that want to purchase according to orders, they can buy pulp/offset printing paper futures (SP2601, OP2601) to lock in procurement costs in advance, with a hedging ratio of 25%. They can also sell put options (SP2512P4850, OP2601P4050) to collect premiums and reduce procurement costs, with a hedging ratio of 25% [8]. Chapter 2: This Week's Important Information 2.1 This Week's Important Information - Likely Positive Information: Some pulp mills are under maintenance; European port pulp inventory decreased in September; the import tariff ratio of pulp from the US remains unchanged; the softwood pulp market price generally shows a slight upward trend [10]. - Likely Negative Information: The high - level destocking of port inventory is slow; Buzhen warehouse receipts suppress the market, and spot liquidity is poor; the peak season is not prosperous, and demand has not improved significantly; the increase in the price increase of downstream paper products in November is lower than expected [11][12]. - Spot Transaction Information: The trend is in the middle of an uptrend. The short - term support level is in the range of [5200, 5250], and the pressure level is in the range of [5500, 5600]. On the futures side, short - term low - level buying or waiting and seeing can be considered, and high - level shorting opportunities can also be monitored. Option strategies can be temporarily on hold. Short - term basis strategies can be temporarily on hold. For arbitrage (inter - period) strategies, as the delivery time approaches, the previous 11 - 01 reverse arbitrage positions can be gradually closed, and the 12 - 01 reverse arbitrage can be switched to [11]. Chapter 3: Disk Interpretation 3.1 Price - Volume and Fund Interpretation - Unilateral Trend and Fund Movement: This week, the SP2511 contract fluctuated, and the SP2601 contract fluctuated upward. In terms of positions, both long and short positions showed signs of slight reduction. The RSI indicator is generally upward and is still in the buying range, indicating short - term upward potential. However, the 6 - day line is approaching the overbought range, and technically, attention should be paid to the possibility of the futures price falling from a high level [16]. - Basis and Inter - period Structure: The inter - period structure maintains a C - structure. The suppression of Buzhen warehouse receipts continues, and the destocking is slow. Affected by the current overall market, the previous short positions in the 01 - 03 inter - period spread can be closed at an appropriate time, and attention should be paid to the short situation of the 12 - 01 inter - period spread [21]. Chapter 4: Supply, Demand, and Inventory - Inventory: On November 7, the inventory was 2.008 million tons (- 53,000 tons) compared with last week. Once the port inventory falls below 2 million tons, it may support the futures price. In late September, the monthly import volume of domestic softwood pulp was 760,000 tons, rebounding from August. The volume of global pulp shipped to China at the end of August increased by 5.7% month - on - month, putting pressure on subsequent pulp destocking. Downstream finished - paper inventories in enterprises continue to accumulate, and profit margins have declined this week, restricting downstream enterprises' raw material replenishment [23]. - Supply: In terms of domestic production, the production of some enterprises has resumed, and the operating load rates of bamboo pulp, hardwood pulp, and chemimechanical pulp have increased compared with last week [1]. - Demand: The operating rates of downstream papermaking enterprises generally increased, and downstream demand has recovered [2].