软商品日报-20251107

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton: ★★★, indicating a clear upward trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities [1] - Pulp: ★☆☆, suggesting a bullish or bearish bias with limited operability on the market [1] - Sugar: ★★★, showing a clear upward trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities [1] - Apple: ★☆☆, implying a bullish or bearish bias with limited operability on the market [1] - Timber: ★★★, indicating a clear upward trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities [1] - Natural Rubber: ★☆☆, suggesting a bullish or bearish bias with limited operability on the market [1] - 20 - day Rubber: ★☆☆, implying a bullish or bearish bias with limited operability on the market [1] - Butadiene Rubber: ★☆☆, suggesting a bullish or bearish bias with limited operability on the market [1] Core Views - The report assesses multiple soft commodities including cotton, sugar, apple, rubber, pulp, and timber, providing investment ratings and analyzing the current market situation, supply - demand relationship, and price trends for each commodity, and giving corresponding investment suggestions [1][2][3][4][5][6][7] Summary by Commodity Cotton & Cotton Yarn - Zhengzhou cotton declined slightly today, with the basis gradually weakening and spot trading being average. New cotton cost provides some support to the market, but price increases may face hedging pressure due to average demand. As of October 30, the cumulative processed lint cotton nationwide was 233.9 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 38.6 million tons. As of November 5, the cumulative inspection volume was 215.78 million tons. The demand for pure cotton yarn is average, and the new orders for weavers are poor. It is recommended to wait and see for now [2] Sugar - Overnight, US sugar was weak. In Brazil, the production data in mid - October was neutral, with the cane crushing volume in mid - October basically flat year - on - year and the sugar - making ratio decreasing month - on - month but still slightly up year - on - year. In China, Zhengzhou sugar remained weak. There are rumors of syrup import control, providing some support. The market focus has shifted to the new season's production estimate. The sugar price is expected to remain weak [3] Apple - The futures price fluctuated widely. In the spot market, apple harvesting in Shandong is nearing the end, and there is little off - warehouse stock in the northwest. As of November 6, the national cold - storage apple inventory was 682.74 million tons, a 17% year - on - year decrease. The market focus has shifted to sales expectations. Apple prices are high, and there may be inventory pressure later. A bearish trading strategy is recommended [4] 20 - day Rubber, Natural Rubber, and Synthetic Rubber - Today, RU was weak, and NR & BR declined. The futures market sentiment was cautious. The global natural rubber supply is in the high - production period, but the Yunnan region in China is entering the low - production period. The domestic tire start - up rate increased slightly this week, and the inventory in Qingdao increased. The import volume in October was 66.7 million tons, a 1.2% year - on - year increase and a 10.1% month - on - month decrease. A strategy of trading on oversold rebounds and paying attention to cross - variety arbitrage opportunities is recommended [5] Pulp - Pulp futures rose slightly today. As of November 6, the inventory at major ports in China was 200.8 million tons, a 2.6% month - on - month decrease. In September, the import volume was 295.25 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 27.25 million tons. The demand for pulp is average, and the valuation is low. It is recommended to wait and see or buy on dips [6] Timber - The futures price was weak. The mainstream spot price remained stable. In November, the New Zealand radiata pine price increased, but the domestic spot price was weak, and the import willingness of traders declined. The port delivery volume was above 60,000 cubic meters, and the inventory was low. It is recommended to wait and see [7]