国投期货农产品日报-20251107

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Bean No.1: Neutral, represented by white stars [1] - Soybean Oil: Bullish, represented by red stars [1] - Palm Oil: Bullish, represented by red stars [1] - Soybean Meal: Slightly bullish, represented by one red star [1] - Rapeseed Meal: Bullish, represented by red stars [1] - Rapeseed Oil: Bullish, represented by red stars [1] - Corn: Bullish, represented by red stars [1] - Live Pigs: Bullish, represented by red stars [1] - Eggs: Slightly bullish, represented by one red star [1] Core Viewpoints - The prices of some agricultural products are affected by factors such as trade policies, supply - demand relationships, and weather conditions. Traders should pay attention to policy guidance, USDA reports, and changes in supply - demand fundamentals [2][3][4] - Different agricultural products have different investment opportunities and risks, and appropriate investment strategies should be adjusted according to market changes [3][6][8] Summary by Category Bean No.1 - The main contract of Bean No.1 significantly reduced positions, and the price fell from a high due to the drag of surrounding commodities. The price of US soybeans also dropped from a high. The purchase of soybeans by Sinograin started, with a premium for high - protein soybeans. The supply of domestic high - protein soybeans is tight this year, and short - term attention should be paid to policy guidance [2] Soybean & Soybean Meal - The continuous futures contract of soybeans continued to fluctuate and correct widely. The tariff for importing US soybeans in China is now 13%, and there is still no price advantage for commercial imports. With the increase in import costs, the crushing margin has improved, and it is expected that there will be a destocking situation for domestic soybeans in the first quarter of next year. Attention should be paid to the long - buying opportunities after the Sino - US trade eases [3] Soybean Oil & Palm Oil - The price of US soybeans dropped from a high due to the easing of trade optimism. After the recent rise of US soybeans, the spread of the near - month FOB premium to Brazil has been repaired higher than the same period last year. The market is expected to turn to focus on the guidance of the USDA report. Palm oil stopped falling and rebounded, but the rebound momentum on the disk is still not strong. Short - term attention should be paid to whether palm oil with a bearish near - end supply - demand situation can stabilize [4] Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil - The expected pressure on the price of foreign oilseeds drags down the domestic rapeseed futures price. The low price of Canadian rapeseed makes farmers less willing to sell, and exports are still sluggish. The domestic coastal oil mills have shut down due to the shortage of rapeseed. It is recommended to change the short - long strategy of rapeseed meal to a wait - and - see attitude and focus on the marginal changes in the oilseed import end [6] Corn - The Dalian corn futures fluctuated weakly. The increase in the supply of new corn in the Northeast has decreased, and the price is stable with a slight upward trend. The supply in Shandong has increased. After the tax cut by the State Council Tariff Commission, the tariff for importing US corn in China is 11% within the quota and 75% outside the quota. Attention should be paid to the signing of the latest Sino - US economic and trade agreement and the change in the enthusiasm of grain listing in the Northeast [6] Live Pigs - The futures price of live pigs fluctuated within a narrow range, and the funds increased positions overall. The spot price also showed a narrow - range consolidation. The inventory of breeding sows decreased month - on - month in October, continuing the trend of capacity reduction for two consecutive months. It is expected that the pig price may hit the bottom again in the first half of next year [7] Eggs - The egg futures first fell and then rose, with an overall reduction in positions. The spot price rose today. The inventory of laying hens decreased slightly month - on - month in October but is still at a historically high level. The number of culled chickens in the spot market increased, and the culling age decreased. The disk has maintained a strong pattern recently, and short - selling opportunities in the fourth quarter should be awaited [8]