Glass Report 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints Despite October being the traditional peak season, terminal demand this year was weak and failed to support prices. Supply expectations increased as corporate profits recovered, and inventory accumulation exceeded expectations, suppressing spot prices. The market was dominated by weak reality, leading to a negative feedback loop and a significant price drop at the beginning of the month. Although there were short - term price rebounds, they lacked momentum due to weak real - estate demand and high inventory. The market is expected to remain in a weak and volatile pattern, and future attention should be paid to production line maintenance and the coal - to - gas conversion process in the Shahe area [12][13]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Price: As of November 7, 2025, the spot price of float glass was 1130 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous period; the closing price of the main contract was 1101 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton; the basis was 29 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton from last week [12][17]. - Cost and Profit: The weekly average profit of producing float glass with natural gas was - 172.7 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton; the low - end price of Henan LNG was 4400 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan/ton. The weekly average profit with coal was 78.1 yuan/ton, up 14.65 yuan/ton; with petroleum coke, it was - 1.77 yuan/ton, down 2.86 yuan/ton [12][26][29]. - Supply: The weekly output of national float glass was 112.89 tons, unchanged; the number of operating production lines was 226, unchanged; the operating rate was 76.35% [12][33]. - Demand: The downstream deep - processing orders of float glass were 10.8 days, down 0.2 days; the operating rate of Low - e glass was 44.30%, up 0.6%. From January to September 2024, the cumulative sales area of commercial housing was 65834.79 million square meters, down 5.5%; in September, it was 8530.87 million square meters, down 11.89%. In September 2025, automobile production and sales were 327.58/322.64 million vehicles, up 17.15%/14.86% year - on - year; from January to September, cumulative production and sales were 2433.30/2436.30 million vehicles [12][36][39][42]. - Inventory: The national float glass factory inventory was 6313.6 million heavy boxes, down 265.4 million heavy boxes; the inventory in the Shahe area was 0 million heavy boxes, down 529.6 million heavy boxes [12][46]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - Glass Basis: As of November 7, 2025, the glass basis situation was as described above [17]. - Glass Inter - month Spread: The 01 - 05 spread was - 128 yuan/ton (+22), the 05 - 09 spread was - 90 yuan/ton (+5), the 09 - 01 spread was 218 yuan/ton (-27), and the open interest was 1.9284 million lots [20]. 3.3 Profit and Cost - Float Glass Profit and Cost: The profit and cost details using different fuels (natural gas, coal, petroleum coke) were as mentioned above [26][29]. 3.4 Supply and Demand - Glass Production and Operating Rate: Weekly output, number of operating production lines, and operating rate were as stated [33]. - Glass Demand: Downstream deep - processing orders and Low - e glass operating rate, as well as real - estate and automobile market data, were as described [36][39][42]. 3.5 Inventory - Inventory: National and Shahe area factory inventories were as mentioned [46]. Soda Ash Report 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints The soda ash market is in a long - term supply - demand imbalance. New capacity release and holiday inventory accumulation pressure prices. Downstream demand has not improved, and export orders are weak. Although cost support exists due to industry losses, it has not fully affected prices. The market is expected to remain weak in the short term [56][57]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Price: As of November 7, 2025, the spot price of heavy soda ash in the Shahe area was 1157 yuan/ton, down 28 yuan/ton; the closing price of the main contract was 1207 yuan/ton, down 28 yuan/ton; the basis was - 50 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week [56][61]. - Cost and Profit: The weekly average profit of the ammonia - soda process was - 103.5 yuan/ton, down 1.8 yuan/ton; the weekly average profit of the combined - soda process was - 212 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan/ton. The price of steam coal at Qinhuangdao Port was 794 yuan/ton, up 28 yuan/ton; the low - end price of Henan LNG was 4400 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan/ton. The price of raw salt in the northwest region was 215 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton; the price of synthetic ammonia in Shandong was 2120 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton [56][71][74][77]. - Supply: The weekly output of soda ash was 74.68 tons, down 1.08 tons; the capacity utilization rate was 85.67%. The output of heavy soda ash was 41.48 tons, down 0.5 tons; the output of light soda ash was 33.2 tons, down 0.58 tons [56][81][84]. - Demand: The weekly output of national float glass was 112.89 tons, unchanged; the operating rate was 76.35%. The apparent consumption of soda ash in September was 3.08 million tons [56][87]. - Inventory: The factory inventory of soda ash was 1.7142 million tons, up 12,200 tons; the available inventory days were 14.21 days, up 0.1 days. The heavy soda ash factory inventory was 89.96 tons, up 1.32 tons; the light soda ash factory inventory was 81.46 tons, down 0.1 tons [56][91][94]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - Soda Ash Basis: As of November 7, 2025, the soda ash basis situation was as described above [61]. - Soda Ash Inter - month Spread: The 01 - 05 spread was - 86 yuan/ton (+7), the 05 - 09 spread was - 69 yuan/ton (-5), the 09 - 01 spread was 155 yuan/ton (-2), and the open interest was 1.9284 million lots [64]. 3.3 Profit and Cost - Soda Ash Profit: The profit details of the ammonia - soda process and the combined - soda process were as mentioned above [71]. - Raw Material Cost: The prices of steam coal, LNG, raw salt, and synthetic ammonia were as described [74][77]. 3.4 Supply and Demand - Soda Ash Production: Weekly output, capacity utilization rate, and the output of heavy and light soda ash were as stated [81][84]. - Soda Ash Demand: Float glass output and soda ash apparent consumption were as described [87]. 3.5 Inventory - Soda Ash Inventory: Factory inventory, available inventory days, and the inventory of heavy and light soda ash were as mentioned [91][94].
需求疲软重启累库，旺季价格大幅回落：玻璃月报-20251107
Wu Kuang Qi Huo·2025-11-07 13:03